The idea that Ontario Premier Doug Ford may be positioning himself as a future contender for the leadership of the federal Conservative Party – and ultimately the role of Prime Minister – is worth serious consideration, especially given Ford’s political trajectory and unique approach to conservatism.

Ford’s Political Ambition
Doug Ford has consistently demonstrated a knack for navigating and surviving in the political spotlight. As Premier of Ontario, Ford has carefully cultivated a “common man” image, appealing to a broad swath of voters, including blue-collar workers and suburban families – key demographics for any federal election. His brand of conservatism is less ideologically rigid than Pierre Poilievre’s; Ford focuses on pragmatism and populist messaging, which could make him a strong contender in federal politics.

While Ford has repeatedly stated he is focused on Ontario, his actions suggest he is not averse to expanding his influence. His willingness to work with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on infrastructure projects and economic initiatives may be positioning him as a centrist alternative to Poilievre’s more hardline, ideological approach. This strategy could help Ford appeal to swing voters in urban areas and ridings that Poilievre might struggle to win.

Tensions with Poilievre
Ford and Poilievre’s relationship has been notably distant. Ford has avoided openly endorsing Poilievre or closely aligning with him, even during the latter’s rise to federal Conservative leadership. This distance hints at a potential rivalry, or at the very least, an unwillingness to be overshadowed by Poilievre on the national stage.

Poilievre’s leadership style, which leans heavily on ideological conservatism and combative rhetoric, may alienate moderate voters – a gap Ford could exploit. Ford’s track record of winning elections in a diverse province like Ontario demonstrates his ability to bridge divides and appeal to a broader electorate, including centrists who might find Poilievre’s approach too polarizing.

Ontario, the Powerhouse of Canadian Politics 
Historically, Ontarians have shown a preference for balancing power between provincial and federal governments, often avoiding having the same political party in charge at both levels. This dynamic could spell trouble for Doug Ford if Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives win the next election. A federal Conservative victory might shift Ontario voters toward the provincial Liberals or NDP in an effort to counterbalance federal policies, particularly if there is dissatisfaction with Conservative governance nationally. Ford’s political calculus must account for this trend, as maintaining his grip on Ontario could become significantly more challenging with a Conservative government in Ottawa. This precarious balance might also incentivize Ford to consider a move to federal politics, especially if he perceives his provincial support waning.

While Ford has not explicitly declared any federal ambitions, the possibility that he could eventually seek Pierre Poilievre’s job cannot be dismissed. His pragmatic approach to conservatism, ability to appeal to diverse voters, and political survival instincts make him a viable alternative for a party looking to broaden its appeal. Whether by design or by opportunity, Ford may very well see himself as Canada’s next Conservative Prime Minister-in-waiting.