Preston Manning’s recent comments suggesting that Mark Carney’s political positions might drive Western Canada toward separatism seem to serve a dual purpose: first, they reinforce long-standing Western alienation narratives, and second, they may act as a strategic setup for Pierre Poilievre to position himself as a national unifier ahead of the next federal election.

Western alienation has been a recurring theme in Canadian politics, particularly under conservative figures who have used it as a rallying point. Manning, as a former leader of the Reform Party, has deep roots in this movement. By framing Carney, who is associated with the Liberals and seen as a potential successor to Trudeau, as a threat to Western unity, Manning effectively stokes regional frustrations. However, the timing and messaging of his comments raise questions about whether they are part of a broader conservative strategy.

If Western separation is framed as an impending crisis, Poilievre can step in as the “voice of reason” advocating for national unity, all while reinforcing his commitment to Western interests. This allows him to attack both the Liberals and Carney while appearing above the fray as a leader who can keep the country together. This tactic, raising the specter of division to later present a preferred leader as the solution, is a classic political maneuver.

Additionally, such rhetoric creates a convenient contrast between Poilievre and Carney. Carney is often positioned as a technocratic elite with strong international credentials, whereas Poilievre appeals to populist, anti-establishment sentiments. By invoking Western alienation, Manning shifts the conversation away from policy and toward identity-based politics, an area where Poilievre has excelled.

Ultimately, whether this is a deliberate “red flag” operation or simply a reflection of Manning’s personal beliefs, the effect is the same: it benefits Poilievre by giving him a crisis to “solve,” reinforcing his national leadership image while deepening the perception of Liberal detachment from Western concerns.