This is the third in a series of posts discussing U.S. military strategic overreach. 

By any sober assessment, the AUKUS agreement is fast revealing itself not as a bold leap forward for Australian sovereignty or security, but rather as a strategic sleight of hand that gifts the United States and United Kingdom a plum prize: a deep-water Pacific base on a silver platter, without any credible assurance that Australia will ever take possession of a single operational nuclear-powered submarine.

At the heart of the matter is the glaring asymmetry in commitments. Australia is shoveling billions of taxpayer dollars, $4.6 billion and counting, into American shipyards and infrastructure while simultaneously preparing HMAS Stirling to host a rotating force of U.S. and British attack submarines as early as 2027. This “Submarine Rotational Force West” isn’t a sovereign fleet, it’s a permanent allied presence on Australian soil, marketed as “partnership,” but shaped overwhelmingly to suit U.S. Pacific ambitions.

Meanwhile, the so-called promise that Australia will receive at least three Virginia-class submarines from the United States remains riddled with legal escape hatches. Congressional legislation passed in 2023 mandates that the U.S. President must provide certification, a full nine months in advance of any transfer, that the move won’t compromise American naval readiness or foreign policy interests. Let’s be clear: this is not a contractual obligation; it’s a political permission slip, one that can be revoked, postponed, or buried under the weight of domestic American priorities at any time. With the U.S. submarine industrial base already overstretched and multiple U.S. senators flagging their concern that sending boats to Australia would weaken the American fleet, the odds are increasingly stacked against Canberra ever seeing these vessels.

Even former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has voiced sharp criticism of the deal, warning that it hands over operational control and strategic autonomy without receiving tangible capability in return. He’s right. As it stands, Australia’s “fleet of the future” is a geopolitical ghost, plausible on paper, dependent on Washington’s whim, and potentially decades away from delivery, if ever.

What Australia is getting, whether it asked for it or not, is an expanding foreign military footprint. The infrastructure being developed in Western Australia will support not Australian submarines, but American and British ones. It’s a curious form of defense procurement when the hardware arrives with foreign flags, foreign crews, and foreign command structures.

And let’s not forget the strategic optics: the U.S. has long wanted a more secure western Pacific presence, particularly as tensions with China escalate. With AUKUS, Washington gets a fortified naval hub in the Indian Ocean gateway without needing to build one from scratch or navigate the domestic pushback that would come with establishing such a base on U.S. territory.

In effect, Australia is underwriting the expansion of U.S. power projection in the Indo-Pacific while receiving, in return, little more than a handshake and a set of talking points about “interoperability” and “shared values.” This is not sovereign defense policy, it’s strategic dependency by design.

Until firm, non-revocable delivery timelines and control guarantees are put in place, AUKUS remains a masterclass in one-sided alliance politics. And unless Canberra wakes up to the hard truths of this arrangement, we may look back on this as the moment Australia paid handsomely to give away a base and got nothing but promises in return.

Sources
• ABC News Australia. “AUKUS legislation passes US Congress.” https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-15/aukus-legislation-passes-us-congress-house-senate/103232048
• PS News. “US Congress approves AUKUS submarine technology transfer.” https://psnews.com.au/us-congress-approves-transfer-of-aukus-submarine-technology-to-australia/124954
• Sky News. “US Senators warn AUKUS deal is zero-sum game for US Navy.” https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/us-senators-warn-joe-biden-that-submarine-aukus-deal-is-zerosum-game-for-us-navy/news-story/d74767e519b13602bc35d5a0717f2704
• Reuters. “US starts to build submarine presence on strategic Australian coast.” https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-starts-build-submarine-presence-strategic-australian-coast-under-aukus-2025-03-16/
• News.com.au. “Malcolm Turnbull’s savage AUKUS takedown.” https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/former-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-says-aukus-deal-unfair-to-australia/news-story/6c3dcce602bb751fece0f8e4ef856054