With the Carney Liberals taking their traditional centralist policy approach to government, is there an opening on the left of the Canadian political spectrum for a truly socialist-leaning party?

The New Democratic Party (NDP) of Canada stands at a defining moment in its history. After years of struggling to maintain relevance in a political landscape increasingly polarized between the Liberals and Conservatives, the party finds itself adrift. The September 2024 decision to terminate its confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals was a tacit admission that its previous strategy had failed. Jagmeet Singh justified the move by accusing the Liberals of being “too weak, too selfish, and too beholden to corporate interests.” However, this abrupt shift, triggered by a labor dispute the Liberals chose to override, was as much about salvaging the NDP’s identity as it was about standing up for workers.

This is not the first time the NDP has faced an existential crisis. The party has long struggled to balance its socialist roots with the political realities of an electorate wary of radical change. In the late 1960s, the Waffle movement sought to push the party toward a more explicitly socialist and nationalist platform, only to be exiled from the mainstream. The early 2000s saw a similar push from the New Politics Initiative, which argued the party had strayed too far from its progressive ideals. Both movements failed, and the NDP continued its slow drift toward the center. That drift culminated in Singh’s decision to prop up Trudeau’s minority government; a decision that, while pragmatic, blurred the lines between the two parties and left voters questioning what the NDP actually stood for.

Yet, within living memory, the NDP has proven that it can be more than a third-place protest party. Jack Layton’s leadership from 2003 until his untimely death in 2011 remains the party’s high-water mark, a period when the NDP not only influenced policy, but commanded real electoral momentum. Layton took a party often dismissed as an afterthought and transformed it into the Official Opposition, securing a historic 103 seats in the 2011 federal election. His ability to connect with voters, offering a vision of pragmatic yet principled social democracy, resonated across generational and regional divides. Layton’s optimism, grassroots engagement, and unshakable commitment to progressive values energized Canadians in a way no NDP leader has managed since. His death left the party without a unifying figure, and in the years that followed, the NDP failed to maintain his momentum, squandering what should have been a launching point for greater electoral success.

With the collapse of the Liberal-NDP pact, the party now has a rare opportunity to redefine itself. If the NDP wishes to survive as more than just an opposition voice, it must embrace a bold, distinct platform that prioritizes social justice, labor rights, and public ownership. A genuine return to socialist principles could galvanize its base and attract disillusioned voters from both the Liberals and Greens. However, this transformation cannot be achieved with tired leadership.

Jagmeet Singh, once an energetic and charismatic leader, increasingly appears exhausted and frustrated. His declining support within the party, dropping to 81% in his last leadership review, the lowest for an NDP leader since 2016, signals growing dissatisfaction. If the party is serious about reinvention, it needs new leadership capable of articulating a compelling vision for the future.

Enter Wab Kinew, the newly elected Premier of Manitoba and leader of the Manitoba NDP. Kinew has demonstrated an ability to win elections in difficult political terrain while championing progressive policies. His emphasis on social justice, economic equity, and reconciliation has resonated deeply with voters. More importantly, he has something Singh now lacks: momentum.

But would Kinew be willing to make the jump to federal politics? His recent victory in Manitoba suggests he is invested in provincial leadership for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, his name is already circulating in discussions about the NDP’s future. If not Kinew, the party must at least look for someone with his level of dynamism and credibility.

With the 2025 federal election results now in, and the party must decide: does it want to be a serious political force, or just a historical footnote? If the NDP is to survive, it must remember what Layton taught it, bold leadership, a clear progressive message, and the courage to fight for real change. Without these, the party’s future will remain uncertain, its best days forever in the past.