The results of Alberta’s three provincial by-elections on June 23, 2025, offer more than simple electoral bookkeeping, they reflect shifting political winds across urban and rural divides, growing challenges for the governing United Conservative Party (UCP), and the solidifying leadership of Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi. While each race had its own dynamics, taken together, they sketch the early contours of the province’s next political chapter.

In Edmonton-Strathcona, Naheed Nenshi secured a commanding victory, winning approximately 82% of the vote. This was no surprise, Strathcona has long been an NDP stronghold, but the size of the margin reaffirmed Nenshi’s appeal among urban progressives. More importantly, it granted the former Calgary mayor a seat in the legislature, allowing him to move from campaign trail rhetoric to legislative combat. For the NDP, this is a strategic milestone. Having a leader with Nenshi’s profile and cross-city recognition seated in the Assembly provides the party with both visibility and gravitas as it prepares to challenge Danielle Smith’s UCP in the next general election.

Meanwhile, Edmonton-Ellerslie delivered a more muted result for the NDP. While Gurtej Singh Brar held the seat for the party, the margin narrowed noticeably compared to previous elections. The UCP candidate, Naresh Bhardwaj, ran a stronger-than-expected campaign, capturing a significant share of the vote. This tightening suggests that even in NDP-leaning urban ridings, voter allegiance cannot be taken for granted. It also indicates that the UCP’s message still resonates with parts of the city’s electorate, particularly among working-class and immigrant communities whose support is increasingly contested territory.

The race in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills played out very differently. As expected, the UCP retained this rural seat, with Tara Sawyer taking over from long-time MLA Nathan Cooper. However, the UCP’s vote share dropped markedly from the 75% it earned in the 2023 general election to around 61%. More striking was the performance of the Republican Party of Alberta (RPA), whose candidate Cameron Davies captured nearly 20% of the vote. The NDP surprisingly edged out the RPA for second place, though rural Alberta remains largely out of reach for them. The RPA’s strong showing, however, is cause for concern within the UCP’s rural flank. Separatist and hard-right discontent, once marginal, is becoming a disruptive force capable of peeling away conservative votes.

Together, these results underline a growing polarization in Alberta politics. The urban-rural split is hardening, with Edmonton increasingly dominated by the NDP and rural ridings remaining UCP strongholds, though now with visible fractures. The UCP retains power, but the by-elections exposed soft spots, especially in its ability to hold urban constituencies and suppress internal dissent from the right. Nenshi’s formal arrival in the legislature sets the stage for a more dynamic opposition, with a leader who brings both charisma and executive experience. His challenge now will be expanding the NDP’s base beyond its urban comfort zone while navigating the complex economic and cultural anxieties shaping Alberta’s electorate.

The by-elections may not have changed the balance of power in the legislature, but they altered the strategic terrain. What was once a contest between entrenched camps now feels more fluid, volatile, and competitive. That should make both major parties pause, and prepare.

Sources
CTV News Edmonton: https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/alberta-ndp-leader-nenshi-wins-seat-in-one-of-three-byelections
The Albertan: https://www.thealbertan.com/olds-news/tara-sawyer-wins-olds-didsbury-three-hills-byelection-10853458
The Hub: https://thehub.ca/2025/06/24/a-win-a-warning-and-a-wobble-in-albertas-byelection-results