There is a faint creak coming from the blue house on Parliament Hill these days. Nothing as dramatic as a collapse. It is more like the weary sigh of old beams shifting under new weather. The Conservative caucus, still licking its wounds from a disappointing election, has begun to sound like that: restless, adjusting, unsure whether to stay or start packing boxes.

This week’s events made the sound louder. On Monday, Chris d’Entremont, MP for Nova Scotia’s Acadie–Annapolis, announced he was leaving the Conservatives to sit with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals. By Friday, Matt Jeneroux of Edmonton Riverbend revealed he would resign his seat in the spring. Two moves in five days would be noteworthy in any week. Coming before a leadership review, they ring like the snap of dry timber.

The facts are plain. D’Entremont said he could work more effectively for his region within government than in opposition. Jeneroux cited family and personal reasons, but the timing spoke volumes. Both men belong to the moderate, results-first wing of the party, the same wing that has looked increasingly uncomfortable under Pierre Poilievre’s sharply populist and combative leadership.

Poilievre remains a gifted communicator and fundraiser. A party is not built on charisma alone. The post-election landscape has left his caucus divided between those who want to double down on grievance politics and those who long for the days when Conservatives prided themselves on competence and calm. The upcoming January 2026 leadership review will force everyone to pick a side. Until then, MPs are doing the math on loyalty, re-election odds, and what they can still stomach.

There is arithmetic of another kind. Each defection moves the Liberals closer to a working majority and signals to uneasy Conservatives that crossing the floor might not mean political exile. It might mean relevance. Carney has left the door visibly ajar.

Beyond the chamber, Canadians watching from their kitchen tables may not feel much sympathy for inside-Ottawa melodrama, but they understand this much. When politicians start talking about family reasons, something larger is usually stirring in the walls.

So yes, the house still stands. But its timbers are talking. More MPs will listen to those creaks in the night and wonder whether to stay in a room where the wallpaper no longer feels like their colour.

Three possible tunes

If the past week is the prelude, the coming months could bring one of three tunes. The first is modest renovation. Poilievre steadies his leadership, wins the review, and a few more moderates quietly retire. The second is a managed reshuffle, with new leadership emerging after further defections. The third, less likely but not impossible, is a structural split. Red Tories in one wing, populists in another.

For now, the tea is still warm, the windows hold against the wind, and the Prime Minister has his recruitment list open. The rest of us can only keep an ear to the rafters and note how often the floorboards sigh.

Background and watchlist

The table below presents the verifiable facts we have, short background on each item, and why these MPs or groups are worth watching right now.

MP or Group	Province or Riding	Status or Facts	Why to Watch	Source Highlights
Chris d’Entremont	Nova Scotia · Acadie–Annapolis	Crossed the floor to the Liberals on November 4 2025	First visible defection and the catalytic event. Cited alignment with government priorities.	AP News November 4 2025 · Politico Canada November 4 2025
Matt Jeneroux	Alberta · Edmonton Riverbend	Announced resignation effective spring 2026	Timing fuels speculation of wider caucus unrest and coincides with a looming leadership review.	Global News November 5 2025
Michael Chong	Ontario · Wellington–Halton Hills	Senior moderate MP currently in caucus	Long record of institutional moderation. Profile suggests potential isolation under combative leadership.	Parliament of Canada profile · Hill Times analysis November 2025
Scott Aitchison	Ontario · Parry Sound–Muskoka	Former leadership candidate in 2022	Advocates collegial tone and pragmatic policy. Leadership tone mismatch makes him a watchlist name.	Leadership race records · CBC archives
Michelle Rempel Garner	Alberta · Calgary region	Prominent independent Conservative voice	Publicly critical on tone and culture issues. Could opt for retirement, re-alignment, or become a focal point for dissent.	Policy Magazine profiles · Angus Reid commentary
Atlantic moderate MPs	Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland	Group with regional pragmatic records	Regionally pragmatic centrists who may feel alienated by Ottawa populism. The first defection came from this region.	AP News November 2025 · Hill Times November 2025
Urban and suburban Ontario MPs	Greater Toronto area and surrounding suburbs	Various MPs in ridings with narrow margins	If local voters reject leader tone, re-election prospects dim and MPs may pre-emptively retire or seek other paths.	Angus Reid Institute polling October 2025
Cross party pragmatists	Various	Backbenchers with a history of cross-party work	Those who prefer cooperation to confrontation may choose to step away rather than remain in an increasingly combative caucus.	Policy Magazine October 2025 · parliamentary reporting
Andrew Scheer and institutional figures	National	Senior caucus roles and institutional influence	More likely to organize a leadership challenge or delegate push than to cross the floor themselves.	Hill Times November 2025 inside reporting

Speculation, modestly poured

If another resignation comes before Christmas, the pattern will be undeniable. The party’s centrist wing would be peeling away. A quiet exodus of three or four MPs could change committee balances and morale. Whether Poilievre can steady his caucus before the January review will decide if the blue house merely needs a new coat of paint or if the tenants start looking for a different address altogether.

Sources

• AP News November 4 2025
• Politico Canada November 4 2025
• Global News November 5 2025
• The Hill Times November 2025
• Policy Magazine October 2025
• Angus Reid Institute polling October 2025
• Parliament of Canada public profiles and records