Canada is currently debating whether to invest in a new fleet of submarines to replace its aging Victoria-class vessels, which were purchased second-hand from the United Kingdom in the 1990s. These submarines, while functional, are nearing the end of their service life and face increasing maintenance challenges.

With Canada’s Arctic becoming more geopolitically significant due to climate change, which is opening new shipping lanes and increasing resource exploration; submarines capable of operating under ice are crucial for maintaining sovereignty in this region. Without them, Canada risks falling behind nations like Russia and the United States, which have invested heavily in Arctic-capable fleets.

Modern submarines, such as those with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) or nuclear capabilities, offer enhanced endurance, stealth, and operational flexibility compared to the diesel-electric Victoria-class. Investing in these technologies would modernize Canada’s navy and ensure operational relevance.

The German Type 212CD (Common Design) submarine, developed by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, represents a modern and highly capable class of diesel-electric submarines with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP). These submarines are designed for stealth, endurance, and multi-role capabilities, and as a NATO platform, the Type 212CD would seamlessly integrate with allied operations, thus strengthening Canada’s contributions to NATO’s underwater defense network. Germany has a proven track record of delivering submarines on time and within budget. Partnering with an experienced supplier like ThyssenKrupp could help Canada avoid some of the delays and cost overruns seen in its previous defense procurement projects.

The operational performance of the Type 212CD remains speculative until it enters service. However, the proven track record of the Type 212A, combined with the extensive research and development efforts behind the CD variant, suggests it will be a reliable and capable platform for NATO-aligned navies.

With Canada’s “Sea to Sea to Sea” responsibilities, they really need a fleet of nine boats (operations, training, maintenance), but I think they would likely procure six over a decade timeframe. Ultimately, the decision will hinge on Canada’s strategic priorities, financial constraints, and Arctic sovereignty goals. If Canada prioritizes cost-efficiency and rapid acquisition, the Type 212CD could emerge as a leading choice, provided it meets specific Arctic and endurance requirements.