The Strategic Shift Behind the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy

The newly released 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy signals a significant departure from the traditional principles that defined American foreign policy for decades. Longstanding commitments to collective defense, liberal internationalism, and multilateral cooperation have been replaced with a posture that treats global engagement as a burden and alliances as conditional assets rather than enduring partnerships.

This shift, framed as a necessary rebalancing of national priorities, is being interpreted by analysts and allied governments as a proactive threat. The threat is not overt or kinetic. Instead, it emerges through the document’s language, strategic preferences, and economic positioning. The resulting landscape places NATO allies, especially Canada, in a vulnerable and uncertain position.

A Reimagined Alliance System

The Strategy redefines alliances in transactional terms. Rather than relying on shared values, mutual defense responsibilities, and long-term strategic vision, the document characterizes alliances as fiscal and strategic obligations that must be justified by allies through increased spending and alignment with U.S. interests. Reports highlight the new emphasis on defense burden-sharing and the suggestion that U.S. commitments may be scaled back for countries that do not meet Washington’s expectations.

This reframing undermines the foundational trust of the NATO system. It places countries like Canada, which historically spends below preferred thresholds, in a position where strategic reliability could be questioned, weakening the security guarantees that NATO has long been built upon.

Europe Recast as a Strategic Project

The Strategy’s rhetoric toward Europe marks a sharp departure from conventional diplomatic framing. The document describes Europe as struggling with demographic decline, economic stagnation, and cultural erosion, and it presents the United States as a guardian poised to steer the continent’s political future. Analysts have flagged the Strategy’s explicit support for “patriotic” political movements in Europe, a development interpreted as a willingness to influence or reshape domestic politics within allied states.

Such language introduces profound uncertainty into the transatlantic relationship. Rather than treating allies as sovereign equals, the Strategy positions them as ideological battlegrounds. For Canada, this suggests that allies’ internal affairs may no longer be off-limits to U.S. strategic intervention, further eroding norms of mutual respect.

The Western Hemisphere as Exclusive American Sphere

A revival of a hemispheric dominance doctrine – effectively a twenty-first century interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine – marks one of the most consequential pivots in the document. The Strategy asserts the Western Hemisphere as an exclusive zone of American influence, intended to be economically aligned, politically manageable, and strategically compliant with U.S. goals.

This shift directly affects Canada. Economic interdependence, continental supply chains, and cross-border migration policies are recast as tools of strategic leverage. Analysts warn that this places Canada in a subordinate position in regional planning and policy formation. Canada’s economic autonomy becomes more limited under a framework that prioritizes U.S. control over hemispheric trade, energy, technology, and resource security.

From Partnership to Asset Management

The Strategy’s architecture suggests a broader conceptual change: allies are treated less as partners and more as assets whose value is measured against U.S. priorities. This represents a decisive break from the postwar model of shared responsibility and common purpose. Guarantees once considered automatic – such as the collective defense obligations that underpin NATO – appear increasingly conditional.

Such a shift introduces strategic instability. Allies must now anticipate fluctuating levels of American engagement based on domestic political calculations rather than consistent treaty commitments. This new posture raises questions about the reliability of alliances in moments of crisis.

Why the Strategy Constitutes a Proactive Threat

Several core elements of the document create a proactive threat to NATO partners and particularly to Canada.

  • Erosion of Collective Defense Norms
    By tying U.S. commitments to spending thresholds and ideological alignment, the Strategy weakens the notion of mutual defense and introduces uncertainty into NATO’s core purpose.
  • Weaponization of Economic Interdependence
    The emphasis on economic nationalism transforms North American trade and supply-chain relationships into pressure points that can be exploited for political or strategic gain.
  • Normalization of Political Intervention in Allied States
    The encouragement of “patriotic” European political movements signals a new willingness to involve itself in domestic ideological debates within allied countries.
  • Marginalization of Allies Not Deemed Strategically Essential
    Countries outside Washington’s immediate priorities risk being sidelined, placing Canada at long-term strategic risk.

A New Geopolitical Landscape for Canada

The 2025 National Security Strategy marks a reordering of global priorities that places Canada in a precarious position. The traditional assumptions underlying Canada’s security and economic planning – predictable U.S. leadership, reliable NATO guarantees, and a shared democratic project – are directly challenged by the Strategy’s new direction.

In this emerging landscape, Canada may face a future in which the United States no longer acts as a steady anchor of the transatlantic alliance, but instead as a dominant regional power pursuing unilateral advantage. The resulting realignment may require Canada and other NATO members to rethink foreign policy strategies, diversify partnerships, and strengthen regional autonomy to avoid becoming collateral variables in an American-centered strategic calculus.

This is the environment the new document creates: one where allies must navigate not the threat of abandonment, but the more subtle and destabilizing threat of conditional partnership, shifting expectations, and ideological intervention.

Canada’s Coast Guard Joins the Defence Team: Integration or Quiet Militarization?

The Canadian government’s decision to fold the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) into the Department of National Defence marks a decisive moment in the evolution of the country’s maritime policy. Through an Order in Council enacted in early September, and framed publicly as a “historic integration,” the Coast Guard now formally joins the Defence Team while remaining, at least in name, a civilian special-operating agency. Alongside this bureaucratic shift, Bill C-2 – the Strong Borders Act – seeks to expand the CCG’s authority into new territory: maritime surveillance, security operations, and intelligence sharing. The language is cautious, but the direction unmistakable. Canada is re-casting its civilian fleet as a security instrument.

The advantages of this integration are clear enough. For decades, Canada’s maritime operations have suffered from duplication, fragmented command structures, and chronic under-coordination between the military, the Coast Guard, and various federal agencies. Unifying them under the defence umbrella promises better coordination, faster response times, and improved data flow across security domains. The move also signals a more assertive posture in the Arctic, where the melting of sea ice has opened new routes, resource prospects, and geopolitical interest. By linking the Coast Guard’s icebreakers, patrol ships, and scientific vessels to Defence planning, Ottawa aims to strengthen sovereignty and deterrence at a time when northern waters are becoming increasingly contested.

There is also an unmistakable element of fiscal and strategic pragmatism. Integrating existing civilian assets into the national security structure allows Canada to stretch its limited defence budget further without the political or financial burden of creating a new armed maritime service. The Coast Guard already provides an extensive logistical network, technical expertise, and near-permanent presence on three coasts and the Great Lakes. With modest investment, these capabilities can be adapted to enhance maritime domain awareness and support allied security objectives, including NATO’s northern surveillance initiatives. In an era of hybrid threats, where cyber intrusions, illegal fishing, and state-sponsored maritime interference blur traditional lines between defence and law enforcement, this integration appears both efficient and strategically inevitable.

Yet the risks are equally consequential. At stake is the Coast Guard’s long-standing civilian identity and the public trust that comes with it. The CCG has always been seen as a service of rescue, safety, and stewardship: unarmed, apolitical, and oriented toward the public good. As the agency takes on intelligence and security functions, that image could erode. The distinction between civilian protection and military surveillance becomes harder to maintain once the two operate under the same institutional roof. Without robust oversight, the Coast Guard’s evolution could lead to mission creep, where a service designed for environmental response and humanitarian aid finds itself entangled in enforcement or intelligence operations that carry political and ethical complexity.

Legal and constitutional questions also loom. Expanding the Coast Guard’s powers will require new frameworks for information sharing, privacy protection, and operational accountability. The proposed amendments under Bill C-2 would permit the collection and dissemination of security data to domestic and international partners. Such activities raise concerns about transparency, data governance, and proportionality, especially when conducted by a civilian agency with limited independent oversight. Moreover, the shift implies deeper operational alignment with the military and allied security agencies, a change that demands clear boundaries to prevent duplication, confusion, or jurisdictional conflict in crisis situations.

Behind the policy lies a broader strategic influence. The United States provides an obvious model. Its Coast Guard functions as a hybrid institution—part law enforcement, part military, part humanitarian service—operating seamlessly across domestic and defence spheres. Canada’s move appears to emulate that structure, reflecting an understanding that maritime security in North America is increasingly integrated. While there is no public evidence of direct U.S. pressure, the gravitational pull of American strategic expectations is unmistakable. Washington has long encouraged its allies to shoulder more responsibility for continental and Arctic security. As the United States expands its presence through the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) modernization and Arctic exercises, Ottawa’s reorganization of its maritime agencies can be read as a complementary alignment rather than a coincidence.

This convergence serves both nations. For the United States, a better-resourced, defence-aligned Canadian Coast Guard strengthens the North American maritime perimeter. For Canada, closer alignment provides diplomatic cover against accusations of underinvestment in defence and enhances interoperability with U.S. command structures. Yet this alignment carries political trade-offs. The closer the Coast Guard moves toward military functions, the more Canada risks blurring its distinctive approach to maritime governance, a tradition rooted in civilian expertise, scientific stewardship, and non-militarized presence.

The political optics of the transition will matter as much as its operational outcomes. The government has emphasized collaboration, modernization, and sovereignty, avoiding any suggestion of militarization. The opposition has been cautious, wary of the costs and implications but unwilling to oppose measures that appear to bolster national security. What remains missing is a transparent national conversation about what kind of maritime posture Canada truly wants: one that prioritizes civilian safety and environmental protection, or one that integrates those aims within a broader security agenda driven by alliance politics.

In strategic terms, the integration may be both inevitable and necessary. The maritime domain is no longer a quiet space of rescue operations and scientific missions; it is a theatre of competition, surveillance, and geopolitical risk. Canada cannot afford to operate its civilian and military fleets as separate silos. Still, the success of this reform will depend on balance, between security and service, between alliance and autonomy, and between efficiency and democratic oversight.

If handled wisely, this reorganization could give Canada a modern, resilient, and integrated maritime posture worthy of its geography and global role. If managed poorly, it risks politicizing a trusted civilian institution and blurring the lines that define responsible democratic defence. The Coast Guard’s new place within the Defence Team is not just an administrative adjustment; it is a statement about the kind of nation Canada intends to be on the world’s waters.

Sources:
Government of Canada, “National Defence welcomes the Canadian Coast Guard to the Defence Team,” September 2025;
CityNews Toronto, “Federal government begins to transfer Coast Guard to National Defence,” September 2, 2025;
Canadian Military Family Magazine, “Canadian Coast Guard joins Defence Team,” September 2025;
Open Government Portal, “Question Period Brief: Strong Borders Act (Bill C-2),” 2025.

🛡️ NATO & Allied Countries Shifting Away from U.S. Defense Equipment

Several NATO and allied countries have recently rejected or are reconsidering U.S.-made military equipment in favor of European or domestic alternatives. This trend reflects a broader shift toward defense autonomy, industrial sovereignty, and reduced reliance on U.S. service contracts.

🇩🇰 Denmark

  • Air Defense: Opted for the Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG long-range system over the U.S.-made Patriot missile system, citing high costs and long delivery times. Denmark is also considering European alternatives like NASAMS, IRIS-T, and VL MICA for medium-range needs.
  • Arctic Exercises: Led the “Arctic Light 2025” military exercise in Greenland without U.S. participation, emphasizing regional leadership and reducing reliance on U.S. forces.

🇪🇸 Spain

  • Fighter Aircraft: Rejected U.S. F-35 proposals in favor of European options like the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), aiming to bolster European defense autonomy and reduce dependence on U.S. military technology.

🇵🇹 Portugal

  • Fighter Aircraft: Reconsidered plans to replace aging F-16s with U.S.-made F-35s, exploring European alternatives to enhance operational control and reduce long-term dependency on foreign suppliers.

🇩🇪 Germany

  • Air Defense: Prioritized domestic production and local sustainment for tanks, artillery, and aircraft, including the Leopard 2 tank upgrades and Eurofighter Typhoon programs, to maintain control over maintenance and modernization capacities.

🇳🇱 Netherlands

  • Naval Platforms: Emphasized European suppliers for submarines and frigates, negotiating co-production and local sustainment agreements to reduce reliance on U.S. shipyards.

🇳🇴 Norway

  • Fighter Jets & Patrol Aircraft: Pushed for domestic assembly lines and local maintenance hubs, limiting dependence on American contractors for lifecycle support.

🇮🇹 Italy

  • Naval & Aerospace Systems: Invested in domestic shipbuilding and aerospace industries, including the FREMM frigate and domestic drone programs, while seeking interoperability standards that avoid long-term U.S. service dependencies.

🇨🇦 Canada

  • Submarine Procurement: Rejected U.S. proposals for new submarines, opting instead for bids from Germany and South Korea to gain autonomy over maintenance, lifecycle upgrades, and operational decision-making.
  • Fighter Aircraft: Evaluating Swedish fighter jets with plans for domestic assembly and maintenance, aiming to reduce reliance on U.S. contractors.

🇫🇮 Finland

  • Military Cooperation: Despite broader U.S. plans to scale back military operations in parts of NATO’s eastern flank, Finland maintains that its military cooperation with the United States is not being reduced. Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen affirmed that the U.S. remains committed to deepening bilateral defense efforts.

🇫🇷 France & 🇮🇹 Italy

  • NATO Arms Deal: Opted out of a new NATO-led initiative to finance the delivery of U.S. weapons to Ukraine, signaling a preference for European solutions and a move towards greater defense autonomy.

🔄 Broader Trends Influencing These Shifts

  • Cost & Delivery Timelines: U.S. defense systems like the Patriot missile system often face long production backlogs and higher costs, prompting NATO allies to seek more timely and cost-effective European alternatives.
  • Industrial Sovereignty: Countries are increasingly prioritizing local or regional production and maintenance capabilities to maintain control over their military assets and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.
  • Political Tensions: Diplomatic strains, such as disagreements over Arctic territories and defense spending, have influenced countries like Denmark to reconsider their reliance on U.S. defense equipment.
  • Strategic Autonomy: The desire for greater control over defense decisions and capabilities is driving NATO allies to explore European solutions that align with their national interests and security priorities.

Allies Reclaiming Autonomy: The Growing Shift Away from U.S.-Made Military Equipment

Across NATO and allied nations, governments are increasingly rejecting U.S. defense options or cancelling long-term contracts, favoring domestic or European alternatives that offer control over manufacturing, maintenance, and upgrades.

For decades, the United States has dominated the global defense market, especially among NATO allies. Its model, sell advanced platforms, then tie buyers into decades of maintenance, upgrades, and proprietary service, has been remarkably profitable and politically influential. But that model is under pressure. Increasingly, U.S. allies are saying no: rejecting American options, cancelling planned contracts, or shifting to alternatives that offer greater operational and industrial autonomy.

Spain provides a recent example. While the country had previously considered U.S.-made platforms to modernize its air force, Madrid has turned toward European options such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Future Combat Air System. Officials cited cost, supply chain control, and the desire to retain domestic and European industrial participation as key drivers. Similar reasoning is guiding Portugal, which has reconsidered its replacement programs for aging aircraft, leaning toward European-built fighters rather than committing to U.S.-supplied F-35s.

Denmark illustrates the trend in air defense. In its largest-ever defense procurement, the Danish government opted for the Franco-Italian SAMP-T NG long-range system over the U.S.-made Patriot, citing both cost and delivery time. Denmark is also reviewing medium-range options from European manufacturers, emphasizing local or regional production and maintenance. This choice reflects the dual desire to strengthen European defense capabilities while reducing reliance on U.S.-based service contracts.

Other NATO members are making comparable moves. Switzerland, historically neutral, has expressed reservations about joining long-term U.S. programs, including the F-35, instead evaluating European alternatives that allow for national control over lifecycle management. Norway has similarly emphasized local assembly and domestic sustainment for fighter and patrol aircraft. The Netherlands, Belgium, and Greece have all shown interest in European or domestic solutions for naval, air, and missile systems, explicitly seeking contracts that do not lock them into decades-long U.S. maintenance agreements.

These choices reflect a broader strategic and economic calculation. U.S.-made systems, while technologically advanced, often require buyers to accept a near-perpetual dependency on American contractors for upgrades, parts, and service. Allies are increasingly reluctant to cede that control, recognizing that operational autonomy and local industrial development are critical to national security. European manufacturers, by contrast, are offering co-production, local assembly, and technology transfer that allow countries to maintain both sovereignty and economic benefit from defense programs.

The implications for the U.S. defense industry are substantial. Losing planned contracts or having allies cancel or decline U.S.-made systems threatens billions in revenue, particularly from the lucrative long-term service and maintenance components. Strategically, it reduces Washington’s leverage: allies that control their own equipment are less subject to subtle influence through supply and upgrade dependencies. Over time, the cumulative effect could reshape the defense-industrial landscape in Europe and beyond, challenging the assumption that U.S.-supplied hardware will dominate allied inventories.

Canada, with its submarine program and proposed Swedish fighter deal, stands as the most prominent example, but it is hardly alone. Across Europe and NATO, governments are asking whether reliance on U.S. contractors for decades-long service agreements is compatible with modern defense priorities. The answer increasingly appears to be “no.” Allies want control over manufacturing, maintenance, and upgrades, and they are willing to bypass traditional U.S. options to achieve it.

In short, the U.S. model of “buy once, pay forever” is losing favor. NATO members and other allies are embracing autonomy, local industrial participation, and diversified procurement, signaling a shift that could reverberate across global defense markets for decades. The message is clear: even America’s closest partners are no longer content to surrender operational control and economic benefit for decades-long contracts that primarily serve U.S. industry.

The Budapest Memorandum of 1994: A Cautionary Tale in Security Assurances

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed on 5 December 1994, stands as a pivotal moment in post-Cold War geopolitics. Emerging from the ashes of the Soviet Union, it marked a rare convergence of nuclear disarmament and multilateral diplomacy. Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, each inheriting a share of the USSR’s vast nuclear arsenal, were persuaded to relinquish their strategic weapons in exchange for assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation. The signing took place at an OSCE summit in the Hungarian capital, hence the document’s name.

At the heart of the memorandum was Ukraine’s possession of the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Though the warheads were technically under Russian operational control, they remained physically on Ukrainian soil. The U.S. in particular led efforts to prevent the emergence of new nuclear states from the former Soviet republics, promoting the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as the legal mechanism for disarmament. In return for joining the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state, Ukraine was promised political assurances regarding its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security.

The terms of the Budapest Memorandum were significant, though pointedly not binding under international law. The signatories pledged to respect the independence and existing borders of Ukraine, refrain from the threat or use of force, and avoid economic coercion. They also committed to seek UN Security Council action if nuclear weapons were ever used against Ukraine, and promised not to use nuclear weapons against the country themselves. The inclusion of a clause requiring consultations in the event of disputes or threats was intended to provide a diplomatic channel in times of crisis.

What is critical to understand is that the memorandum was not a formal treaty. It lacked enforcement mechanisms and legal penalties, relying instead on political goodwill and international norms. This distinction would prove fatal to its credibility two decades later.

The annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in early 2014, followed by its support for separatists in the Donbas region, represented a direct challenge to the core principles enshrined in the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine’s territorial integrity was violated by a state that had explicitly committed to uphold it. While the United States and the United Kingdom issued strong condemnations and imposed sanctions on Russia, neither country provided direct military support to Ukraine, citing the memorandum’s non-binding nature.

Russia, for its part, has argued that the circumstances of 2014, namely, the change in Ukraine’s government following the Maidan Revolution, nullified the commitments under the agreement. It has also claimed that Crimea’s “referendum” justifies its actions. These positions are widely rejected by the international legal community and by the other signatories of the memorandum, but the damage to the credibility of security assurances was done.

The legacy of the Budapest Memorandum is now viewed with a mix of regret and realism. It illustrates the limits of non-binding agreements in deterring aggression by great powers, and it has become a central reference point in discussions on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. For Ukraine, the memorandum is a bitter reminder of the price paid for denuclearization without robust, enforceable guarantees. For the global community, it raises hard questions about the viability of relying on political promises in an increasingly unstable world.

The Budapest case has also had ramifications beyond Eastern Europe. It has been cited by countries such as North Korea and Iran in debates over nuclear policy, reinforcing the perception that possession of nuclear weapons may offer more reliable security than any assurance signed on paper. In the decades since, the gap between rhetoric and reality in international security agreements has only widened.

Sources
• United States Department of State Archive. Background Briefing on Ukraine, March 2014. https://2009-2017.state.gov
• United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weaponshttps://disarmament.un.org
• Council on Foreign Relations. Why Ukraine Gave Up Its Nuclear Weapons, 2022. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/why-ukraine-gave-nuclear-weapons
• Chatham House. Ukraine, Russia and the West: The Budapest Memorandum at 30, 2023. https://www.chathamhouse.org

Canada’s Strategic Shift: Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Joining Europe’s ReArm Program

Canada’s decision to signal its intention to join Europe’s ReArm initiative marks a significant pivot in its strategic and procurement priorities, with implications that extend well beyond the defense sector. This pan-European effort, catalyzed in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the shifting tenor of transatlantic politics, aims to coordinate defense procurement, scale industrial capacity, and strengthen European security autonomy. For Canada, a non-European NATO member with strong ties to both the U.S. and Europe, alignment with ReArm offers both substantial opportunity and strategic complexity.

At the forefront of the appeal is diversification. Canada has long relied on the United States for upwards of 75% of its military procurement. While the U.S. – Canada defense relationship, particularly through NORAD, remains indispensable, the risks of a politically volatile or inward-focused Washington have grown. Europe’s response, particularly Germany’s ramped-up defense commitments, and the €800 billion EU proposal to stimulate continental arms production, presents an alternative axis of reliability. Canada’s participation could signal to both NATO allies and global partners that it seeks greater resilience in its defense posture.

One of the most concrete areas of cooperation could lie in the domain of submarine procurement. The CBC reports that Canada is exploring options for the German-Norwegian Type 212CD submarine, a next-generation conventional submarine being co-developed by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and Kongsberg. This class boasts extended underwater endurance through air-independent propulsion and quiet operation ideal for Arctic patrols, long a capability gap in Canadian naval strategy. The possibility of Canada becoming a formal partner in the 212CD project would not only address its aging Victoria-class fleet but also create industrial synergies through potential domestic assembly and technology transfer agreements.

Beyond submarines, ReArm opens the door to collaborative fighter jet production. Canada’s inclusion in discussions around final assembly of Swedish Saab Gripen fighters suggests that Ottawa is seeking industrial offset opportunities beyond its existing Lockheed Martin F-35 commitments. These talks, while preliminary, reflect a desire to reassert domestic defense manufacturing after years of outsourcing.

Still, the risks are considerable. Aligning procurement strategies with European standards could create friction in interoperability with American systems, particularly relevant given NORAD modernization and Canada’s Arctic commitments. There is also the question of cost. Canada’s new defense policy promises to increase military spending to 1.76% of GDP by 2030, a notable jump, but still short of NATO’s 2% target. Adding ReArm investments could strain the federal budget, and force trade-offs in domestic priorities.

Geopolitically, joining a European initiative risks being interpreted in Washington as a soft decoupling. While this may be overstated, managing the optics with U.S. defense officials will require careful diplomacy. At the same time, any major procurement projects pursued under ReArm would need to be justified as both value-for-money, and strategically essential in a Canadian context.

ReArm represents a chance for Canada to assert greater agency in its defense strategy, while leveraging European innovation and industrial momentum, but this is no risk-free proposition. Ottawa will need to walk a careful line: embracing new partnerships without compromising old ones, and ensuring that each procurement project is grounded in long-term strategic logic, not simply in search of novelty.

The Dragon at the Gate: China’s Quiet Reversal of the Peking Accord

It’s a strange sight to behold – the old bear, once feared across continents, now leaning heavily on the dragon, who circles with a slow, calculating grace. Russia, once the hammer of the East, has been brought to heel by a grinding war in Ukraine, and while the West cuts ties and imposes sanctions, China, with the patience of a millennia-old civilization, sees opportunity, not just to profit, but perhaps to reshape history.

There’s a sense of irony that hangs over this moment. In 1860, the Qing dynasty signed the Peking Accord under duress, ceding vast swathes of land to the Russian Empire. That territory, now known as the Russian Far East, includes strategic regions like Vladivostok and the Amur Basin, lands that had once been part of China’s imperial periphery. The Chinese state, pragmatic in diplomacy, but deeply historical in self-conception, has never fully forgotten these losses. While official maps no longer lay claim to those regions, nationalist narratives in China occasionally whisper about redrawing what was once erased.

Fast forward to today, and the tables have turned. The war in Ukraine has battered Russia’s economy, and severed its connections to Europe. In desperation, Moscow has tilted eastward, selling gas, oil, and influence to Beijing at discount prices. This is not a partnership of equals. Russia needs Chinese markets, Chinese currency, and Chinese technology. China, meanwhile, gains leverage with every shipment of discounted crude, and every signed memorandum that ties the Russian economy tighter to the yuan. Where once they competed in Central Asia and the Arctic, now Russia finds itself the junior partner in a relationship it once dominated.

But China’s strategy isn’t conquest, it’s saturation. In the underpopulated stretches of Siberia and the Russian Far East, Chinese traders, laborers, and companies are embedding themselves quietly, but firmly. Towns along the border increasingly do their business in yuan, and many look more to Harbin or Heihe, cities in China’s Heilongjiang Province, than to Moscow. Infrastructure projects, often funded with Chinese capital, and executed by Chinese firms, are weaving a new economic fabric, one that binds these regions more to Beijing than to the Kremlin.

This isn’t a territorial war. China doesn’t need tanks to reverse the Peking Accord. It just needs time, capital, and a weakened Russia with few other friends. What we may be witnessing is not the formal return of lost lands, but something more subtle and enduring; a slow-motion annexation by way of economy, trade, and cultural seepage. A kind of imperial inversion, done not with gunboats, but with invoices and supply chains.

In geopolitics, history never dies, it just waits for the moment when the balance tilts. With every sanctioned ruble, and every Chinese-funded deal, the echoes of the 19th century grow louder. Russia may not yet realize it, but the dragon is already at the gates. Not to conquer, but to reclaim, softly, surely, and without ever having to fire a shot.

Abandoned Sovereignty: How Canada Gave Up on Its Own Defence Industry

I began writing this piece over a year ago, and now it seems time to publish. I have seen first hand, during my time working for the UK feds, the way most members of NATO, not just Canada, have purchased U.S. military equipment, often under political pressure, and to the detriment of their own defence industries.  NATO interoperability standards should mean that any compatible equipment should be a viable option, considered through open competitive bidding, yet the geopolitical reality is something completely different. 

Canada has long faced intense pressure—political, economic, and social—to purchase U.S. military equipment for its armed forces, a reality that has shaped its defense procurement decisions for decades. This pressure is deeply rooted in history, from Cold War-era alliances to modern-day trade dependencies, and it has left Canada with little choice, but to align its military acquisitions with American interests. The consequences of this alignment go beyond procurement choices; they have also played a role in the erosion of Canada’s own defense research and development capabilities.

The political pressure to buy American is most evident in Canada’s commitment to joint defense initiatives, particularly NORAD and NATO. From the early days of the Cold War, Canada’s defense policies have been deeply entwined with those of the United States. The integration of North American air defense under NORAD meant that Canada’s fighter aircraft, radar systems, and missile defense strategies had to be compatible with those of the U.S. When Canada scrapped its own Avro Arrow fighter program in 1959, ostensibly for cost reasons, it conveniently cleared the way for the adoption of American aircraft like the CF-101 Voodoo, locking the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) into a reliance on U.S. technology that continues to this day.

This trend persisted throughout the latter half of the 20th century. Canada’s navy, which once built world-class destroyers and anti-submarine vessels, saw its shipbuilding industry decline, and by the 1990s, the country was purchasing used British submarines while remaining dependent on American-built weapons and sensors. Similarly, Canada’s decision to buy the CF-18 Hornet fighter in the 1980s followed a pattern of choosing U.S. aircraft over European or domestic alternatives. While the CF-18 has served well, it locked Canada into the U.S. military supply chain for parts, upgrades, and replacements. Now, with the planned acquisition of F-35 stealth fighters, that dependence is only deepening.

Economically, Canada’s military procurement is heavily influenced by its integration with the U.S. defense industrial base. The Defense Production Sharing Agreement (DPSA), signed in 1956, allowed Canadian defense firms to bid on U.S. military contracts, but it also cemented Canada’s role as a supplier of components rather than a leader in weapons development. This effectively sidelined Canadian military research and engineering projects, making it far more difficult to revive independent initiatives. When the Arrow was canceled, it wasn’t just a single aircraft project that was lost—it was an entire aerospace industry that could have positioned Canada as a technological leader rather than a perpetual customer of American defense contractors.

The economic argument for buying American is always framed in terms of cost-effectiveness and interoperability, but the reality is that it often comes with trade-offs. The purchase of American equipment frequently involves hidden costs—maintenance contracts, dependency on U.S. technology, and restrictions on modifications. The recent push to buy American-made submarines, replacing the troubled British-built Victoria-class boats, is another example of how Canada’s choices are limited by its reliance on U.S. and NATO systems. In many cases, American weapons systems are the only viable option simply because Canada has not maintained the capability to produce its own alternatives.

Public sentiment in Canada is often skeptical of major military purchases, and this can create social and political tensions. Many Canadians are uncomfortable with high military spending, particularly when it benefits American defense giants like Lockheed Martin or Boeing. This unease has been reinforced by past procurement scandals, such as the costly and controversial EH-101 helicopter cancellation in the 1990s, which resulted in years of delays in replacing Canada’s aging Sea Kings. Yet, despite public resistance, successive Canadian governments—Liberal and Conservative alike—have found it almost impossible to escape the gravitational pull of American defense procurement.

Interoperability with U.S. forces is the most frequently cited justification for this dependence, and in some cases, it is a valid one. Canadian troops often train and deploy alongside U.S. forces, making shared equipment a practical necessity. However, this argument is often overstated to justify buying American even when other options exist. The recent decision to acquire P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft from Boeing, rather than exploring alternatives like the Airbus C295 or continuing to develop Canadian-built options, reflects this bias. The same was true with the decision to buy Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone helicopters, a troubled program that has suffered significant delays and technical issues.

Over time, Canada’s ability to independently design and produce advanced military hardware has been systematically dismantled. The cancellation of the Arrow was just the first in a series of decisions that saw Canadian innovation sacrificed in favor of American procurement. The loss of the CF-105 program, the shelving of independent drone development efforts, and the abandonment of domestic tank production have left Canada as a nation that buys rather than builds. While there are still areas of strength—such as armored vehicle production through General Dynamics Land Systems Canada—the overall trajectory has been one of increasing dependence on the U.S.

The reality is that Canada’s defense procurement strategy is shaped as much by geopolitics as by practical military needs. The U.S. is both Canada’s closest ally, and its largest trading partner, and any significant deviation from American military procurement norms risks diplomatic and economic fallout. The fear of upsetting Washington is a powerful deterrent against seeking alternatives, whether from European manufacturers or through domestic production.

In the end, Canada’s military procurement is not just a matter of choosing the best equipment—it is a strategic and political decision that reflects the country’s place in the global order. Until Canada makes a concerted effort to rebuild its defense research and production capabilities, it will remain at the mercy of U.S. military priorities. Whether that is an acceptable trade-off is a question that Canadian policymakers—and the public—must continue to grapple with.

Update
Since writing the core of this piece, there has been some signs that Canada is trying to rekindle its own defence industry with its ship building program for the new River class destroyers, the conversation about purchasing European designed and built submarines, and early discussions regarding reducing the F-35 purchase program, in favour of the Swedish Saab Gripen. The Swedish proposal, which promised that aircraft assembly would take place in Canada, and that there would be a transfer of intellectual property, which would allow the aircraft to be maintained in this country, was very different from the U.S. F-35 program, where major maintenance, overhaul and software upgrades would happen in the States. The second Trump administration might just be the catalyst that Canada needs to seek alternative solutions rather than the business as usual approach we have seen over the last 75 years.