By-Elections Signal Alberta’s Political Crossroads

The results of Alberta’s three provincial by-elections on June 23, 2025, offer more than simple electoral bookkeeping, they reflect shifting political winds across urban and rural divides, growing challenges for the governing United Conservative Party (UCP), and the solidifying leadership of Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi. While each race had its own dynamics, taken together, they sketch the early contours of the province’s next political chapter.

In Edmonton-StrathconaNaheed Nenshi secured a commanding victory, winning approximately 82% of the vote. This was no surprise, Strathcona has long been an NDP stronghold, but the size of the margin reaffirmed Nenshi’s appeal among urban progressives. More importantly, it granted the former Calgary mayor a seat in the legislature, allowing him to move from campaign trail rhetoric to legislative combat. For the NDP, this is a strategic milestone. Having a leader with Nenshi’s profile and cross-city recognition seated in the Assembly provides the party with both visibility and gravitas as it prepares to challenge Danielle Smith’s UCP in the next general election.

Meanwhile, Edmonton-Ellerslie delivered a more muted result for the NDP. While Gurtej Singh Brar held the seat for the party, the margin narrowed noticeably compared to previous elections. The UCP candidate, Naresh Bhardwaj, ran a stronger-than-expected campaign, capturing a significant share of the vote. This tightening suggests that even in NDP-leaning urban ridings, voter allegiance cannot be taken for granted. It also indicates that the UCP’s message still resonates with parts of the city’s electorate, particularly among working-class and immigrant communities whose support is increasingly contested territory.

The race in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills played out very differently. As expected, the UCP retained this rural seat, with Tara Sawyer taking over from long-time MLA Nathan Cooper. However, the UCP’s vote share dropped markedly from the 75% it earned in the 2023 general election to around 61%. More striking was the performance of the Republican Party of Alberta (RPA), whose candidate Cameron Davies captured nearly 20% of the vote. The NDP surprisingly edged out the RPA for second place, though rural Alberta remains largely out of reach for them. The RPA’s strong showing, however, is cause for concern within the UCP’s rural flank. Separatist and hard-right discontent, once marginal, is becoming a disruptive force capable of peeling away conservative votes.

Together, these results underline a growing polarization in Alberta politics. The urban-rural split is hardening, with Edmonton increasingly dominated by the NDP and rural ridings remaining UCP strongholds, though now with visible fractures. The UCP retains power, but the by-elections exposed soft spots, especially in its ability to hold urban constituencies and suppress internal dissent from the right. Nenshi’s formal arrival in the legislature sets the stage for a more dynamic opposition, with a leader who brings both charisma and executive experience. His challenge now will be expanding the NDP’s base beyond its urban comfort zone while navigating the complex economic and cultural anxieties shaping Alberta’s electorate.

The by-elections may not have changed the balance of power in the legislature, but they altered the strategic terrain. What was once a contest between entrenched camps now feels more fluid, volatile, and competitive. That should make both major parties pause, and prepare.

Sources
CTV News Edmonton: https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/alberta-ndp-leader-nenshi-wins-seat-in-one-of-three-byelections
The Albertan: https://www.thealbertan.com/olds-news/tara-sawyer-wins-olds-didsbury-three-hills-byelection-10853458
The Hub: https://thehub.ca/2025/06/24/a-win-a-warning-and-a-wobble-in-albertas-byelection-results

Cameron Davies and the Rise of Alberta’s Republican Right: An American Echo in Western Canada

The emergence of the Republican Party of Alberta (RPA) on the political stage is more than just another footnote in the long tale of Western alienation, it’s a calculated, ideologically driven attempt to redefine Alberta’s place not just within Canada, but in the broader North American political culture. At its centre stands Cameron Davies, a seasoned conservative strategist whose own political evolution mirrors the rightward lurch of the party he now leads.

The RPA was officially registered with Elections Alberta in January 2024, marking the latest effort to unite various hard-right and sovereigntist factions that have cycled through Alberta politics over the past decade. It inherited the legacy of groups like the Wildrose Independence Party and Wexit Alberta, which had captured the imagination of disillusioned voters but failed to sustain momentum. The new branding, “Republican” in name and nature, signals a stark ideological shift. It’s not just about independence anymore; it’s about importing the ethos of American-style conservatism, down to the MAGA-hued slogans and policy choices.

When Cameron Davies was acclaimed as leader in April 2025, the party’s intentions crystallized. Davies, a former backroom operator for the Wildrose and United Conservative Party (UCP), is best known for his role in the controversial “kamikaze” campaign during the 2017 UCP leadership race. That episode, which sought to undermine Brian Jean in favour of Jason Kenney, resulted in Davies being fined $15,000 for obstructing an election investigation. Though bruised by scandal, he remained a prominent figure in conservative circles until he publicly resigned from the UCP in 2025, accusing it of corruption, entitlement, and ideological betrayal.

His resignation letter read like a manifesto, a rejection of institutional politics in favour of what he described as grassroots conservatism, though critics might call it a hard-right insurgency. Davies’ departure was both strategic and symbolic. He positioned himself as the torchbearer of the “real right” in Alberta, unencumbered by the compromises of power that had come to define Danielle Smith’s increasingly centrist UCP government.

Under Davies’ leadership, the RPA has embraced a platform that reads like it was drafted in a red-state Republican think tank. There’s the call for a binding referendum on Alberta independence, followed by a non-binding vote on joining the United States. There’s strong rhetoric about parental rightsreligious freedom, and gun ownership, coupled with opposition to “woke” policies like diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. Carbon taxes, public healthcare, federal immigration policies—these are all painted as signs of moral and fiscal decline, to be swept away by a new order rooted in faith, family, and “freedom.”

If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Davies has openly fashioned himself in the mold of American populist leaders. His social media presence references his military background (“Marine”), his patriotism, and his adherence to traditional values. He speaks of Canada, especially under Liberal governments, in the kind of dire terms more commonly heard on Fox News than in Canadian legislatures. For Davies, Ottawa is not just a political rival; it is a moral adversary, and Alberta must be rescued from its grasp.

There is no hard evidence yet of direct ties between Davies and the machinery of the American right, no funding pipelines, no visits to CPAC (yet), no endorsements from U.S. figures. But the ideological alignment is unmistakable. The RPA’s aesthetics, policy priorities, and culture-war messaging are all deeply influenced by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. It is a party that sees itself less as a provincial player and more as a cultural movement, seeking to spark a broader populist awakening.

Davies’ recent moves show that this isn’t just rhetorical posturing. In May 2025, the RPA signed a Memorandum of Understanding with The Independence Party of Alberta, forming a loose coalition aimed at consolidating the separatist vote. The message is clear: there is no room anymore for fragmented protest parties. To mount a serious challenge to the UCP and, by extension, the federal order, the independence movement must speak with one voice, and Davies intends to be that voice.

The question now is whether the Republican Party of Alberta will become a formidable political force, or simply another flare in Alberta’s long-burning bonfire of right-wing discontent. The UCP has already learned, painfully, what happens when the right fractures. The Wildrose-PC split in the early 2010s handed the NDP a surprise victory in 2015. That memory is still fresh, and it was precisely what motivated the formation of the UCP as a big-tent conservative party in 2017.

Yet that tent is fraying. Many rural voters feel the UCP has compromised too much on issues like education, healthcare privatization, and provincial sovereignty. The RPA, with its unapologetically radical platform, offers them an alternative, a place where the message isn’t diluted by political pragmatism. Davies has a keen understanding of this tension, and he’s betting that enough Albertans are tired of half-measures and ready to blow the whole system up.

But winning a few headlines and gaining traction in the echo chamber of social media is one thing; winning seats is another. The RPA currently has no MLAs. Its organizational infrastructure is limited. Unless a high-profile defection occurs or it pulls off an upset in a by-election, the party remains on the fringe. Moreover, its overtly American positioning, especially the proposal to join the U.S., may strike even sympathetic voters as unserious or dangerously naive.

Canadians, after all, are not Americans. While cultural conservatism resonates in parts of Alberta, many still value universal healthcare, peacekeeping diplomacy, and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The RPA’s invocation of U.S.-style populism could ultimately alienate more voters than it attracts, especially if it becomes associated with the chaos and polarization of American politics.

Still, it would be unwise to dismiss Cameron Davies and the RPA out of hand. They are tapping into something very real: a deep and growing disillusionment with traditional politics, a sense of cultural siege, and a yearning for bold, even revolutionary change. Whether that can be translated into electoral success remains uncertain, but the message is loud and clear: the populist right in Alberta is no longer content to sit on the sidelines. And under Davies’ leadership, it’s ready to speak with an American accent.