Ottawa’s Line One and the Cost of Normalized Failure

Ottawa’s Confederation Line was meant to be the spine of a growing capital. Instead, it has become a case study in how complex systems fail slowly, publicly, and expensively when accountability is diluted and warning signs are treated as inconveniences rather than alarms.

The most recent episode is stark even by Line One standards. Roughly 70 percent of the train car fleet has been removed from service due to wheel bearing failures, leaving the system operating with dramatically reduced capacity. This is not a cosmetic defect or a comfort issue. Wheel bearing assemblies are fundamental safety components. When they degrade, trains are pulled not because service standards slip, but because continued operation becomes unsafe.

That distinction matters.

A Fleet Designed at the Margins
The Alstom Citadis Spirit trains operating on Line One were marketed as adaptable to Ottawa’s climate and operational demands. In practice, they appear to have been designed and procured with little margin for error. Investigations following earlier derailments already identified problems with wheel, axle, and bearing interactions under real-world conditions. The current bearing crisis suggests those lessons were not fully integrated into either design revisions or maintenance regimes.

OC Transpo’s decision to remove all cars that have exceeded approximately 100,000 kilometres of service is telling. That threshold is not a natural lifecycle limit for modern rail equipment. It is an emergency line drawn after degradation was discovered, not a planned overhaul interval. When preventive maintenance becomes reactive withdrawal, the system is already in trouble.

When Reliability Becomes Optional
What riders experience as “unreliability” is, at the system level, something more troubling: normalized failure.

Short trains. Crowded platforms. Sudden slow orders. Unplanned single tracking. Bus bridges that appear with little notice. Each disruption is explained in isolation, yet they form a continuous pattern. The city has become accustomed to managing failure rather than preventing it.

This matters because transit is not a luxury service. It is civic infrastructure. When reliability drops below a certain threshold, riders do not simply complain. They adapt by abandoning the system where they can, which in turn undermines fare revenue, political support, and long-term mode shift goals. The system enters a feedback loop where declining confidence justifies lowered expectations.

Governance Without Ownership
One of Line One’s enduring problems is that responsibility is everywhere and nowhere at once. The public owner is the City of Ottawa. Operations are contracted. Vehicles were procured through a public-private partnership. Maintenance responsibilities are split. Oversight relies heavily on assurances rather than adversarial verification.

When failures occur, no single actor clearly owns the outcome. This is efficient for risk transfer on paper, but disastrous for learning. Complex systems improve when failures are interrogated deeply and uncomfortably. Ottawa’s LRT has instead produced a culture of incremental fixes and carefully worded briefings.

The wheel bearing crisis did not appear overnight. It emerged from cumulative stress, design assumptions, and operational realities interacting over time. That is precisely the kind of problem P3 governance structures are worst at confronting.

The Broader System Cost
The immediate impact is crowding and inconvenience. The deeper cost is strategic.

Ottawa is expanding Line One east and west while the core remains fragile. New track and stations extend a system whose reliability is still unresolved at its heart. Each extension increases operational complexity and maintenance demand, yet the base fleet is already struggling to meet existing service levels.

This is not an argument against rail. It is an argument against pretending that infrastructure can compensate for unresolved engineering and governance failures.

What Recovery Would Actually Require
Recovery will not come from communications plans or incremental tuning. It requires three uncomfortable shifts.

First, independent technical authority with the power to halt service, mandate redesigns, and override contractual niceties. Not advisory panels. Authority.

Second, transparent lifecycle accounting. Riders and taxpayers should know what these vehicles were expected to deliver, what they are delivering, and what it will cost to bring reality back into alignment with promises.

Third, political honesty. Reliability will not improve without sustained investment, possible fleet redesign, and service compromises during remediation. The public can handle bad news. What it cannot handle indefinitely is spin.

A Spine, or a Lesson
Ottawa’s Line One still has the potential to be what it was meant to be. The alignment is sound. The ridership demand exists. The city needs it.

But infrastructure does not fail because of a single bad component. It fails when systems tolerate weakness until weakness becomes normal. The wheel bearing crisis is not an anomaly. It is a signal.

The question now is whether Ottawa treats it as another incident to manage, or as the moment to finally confront the deeper architecture of failure that has defined Line One since its opening.

Sources: 

CityNews Ottawa. “OC Transpo forced to remove trains from Line 1 due to wheel bearing issue.” January 2026.
https://ottawa.citynews.ca
Yahoo News Canada. “70% of Ottawa’s Line 1 trains out of service amid bearing problems.” January 2026.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com
Transportation Safety Board of Canada. “Rail transportation safety investigation reports related to Ottawa LRT derailments.” 2022–2024.
https://www.tsb.gc.ca
OC Transpo. “O-Train Line 1 service updates and maintenance notices.”
https://www.octranspo.com

VIA Rail Misses the Train on Serving Canadians

VIA Rail recently trumpeted a new “pilot project” meant to shave half an hour off the Montréal–Toronto run. The idea was to run nonstop trains between the two big cities, bypassing Cornwall, Brockville, Kingston, and Belleville. The announcement was pitched as a bold experiment in “efficiency,” a nod to the 70 percent of surveyed passengers who supposedly wanted quicker travel between downtown cores.

But almost immediately, the wheels came off. Citing “operational constraints” with their partner CN, VIA Rail suspended the project before it even left the station. On paper, this looks like a technical hiccup, another example of Canada’s fragile rail system bending to the priorities of freight traffic. But in reality, the plan itself was the problem. It was never about serving Canadians, it was about copying European or Japanese rail gloss without any of the context, backbone, or infrastructure investment those systems require.

For decades, communities along the corridor have depended on trains as lifelines. Students in Kingston, retirees in Belleville, families in Cornwall – these aren’t “optional” stops. They’re the heart of what passenger rail is supposed to do: connect Canadians, not just shuttle executives between two large metro centres. The whole point of a public Crown corporation like VIA Rail is to balance speed with accessibility, ensuring that smaller communities aren’t stranded in the name of shaving 30 minutes off a trip for a select few.

Even politicians, often slow to notice transit tweaks, raised red flags. Brockville’s mayor called the nonstop plan “concerning” and Conservative MP Michel Barrett branded it “unacceptable.” They weren’t wrong. Stripping out regional stops would have meant sidelining thousands of riders, effectively telling entire towns they were expendable in the rush to serve big-city commuters.

The irony is that the project was marketed as modernization. But modernization, in a Canadian context, should mean strengthening regional ties, upgrading track infrastructure, and finally breaking free of freight’s stranglehold on passenger rail, not copying a TGV fantasy while underfunding the very communities that give the corridor its economic and social weight.

Instead, VIA Rail now looks like it tried to leap forward without noticing the tracks were missing. Worse, its apology to passengers rings hollow. The real apology is owed to the communities it dismissed as speed bumps, to the Canadians who still believe public transportation is about more than corporate surveys and flashy PR lines.

In the end, the scrapped nonstop pilot is a lesson: if VIA Rail wants to serve Canadians, it needs to remember who those Canadians are. They’re not just the 70 percent who want to get to Bay Street faster. They’re also the people in eastern Ontario whose taxes help keep VIA afloat, and who deserve not to be treated as collateral damage in a misguided chase for efficiency.

Sometimes slowing down isn’t failure, it’s service. VIA Rail might want to remember that before the next “pilot project” takes off.

The Northlander Returns: A New Era for Rail in Northern Ontario

The vast majority of my readers know how enthusiastic I am about the continued development of public transportation capacity, and especially trains for regional services.  

After more than a decade of absence, the Ontario Northlander train is poised to make its triumphant return, and for many in Northern Ontario, it couldn’t come soon enough. This isn’t just a story about a train line being revived. It’s about equity, connectivity, environmental sustainability, and economic renewal. As someone who has spent the better part of my career analyzing and advocating for robust public transit solutions, I see the Northlander’s revival as a long-overdue correction to a critical transportation misstep.

The Ontario Northlander was first launched in 1976, operated by Ontario Northland Railway (ONR), as a passenger rail service running between Toronto and Cochrane. For decades, the train was a vital artery, an essential link between rural northern communities and the political, economic, and cultural hub of Southern Ontario. Students rode it to university. Seniors depended on it for healthcare visits in the city. Tourists boarded it in search of pristine lakes and forests. And entire communities built their sense of connection around it.

Then, in 2012, the service was cancelled. The provincial government at the time pointed to financial unsustainability and declining ridership, replacing the train with bus service. But buses, while useful, were never an adequate substitute for the comfort, reliability, and year-round stability of rail. For the people of the North, many of whom already feel excluded from Queen’s Park’s decision-making, the cancellation was a bitter pill. And so, for over a decade, the memory of the Northlander lived on not as a nostalgic curiosity, but as a symbol of something lost and needed again.

Fast-forward to 2021, when the Ontario government formally announced that it would restore Northlander rail service. The new plan is far more ambitious than a simple restart of the old route. This time, the train will run between Toronto and Timmins, with a continuation to Cochrane, and it will serve up to 16 stops along the way. North Bay, Temiskaming Shores, Kirkland Lake; these are not just waypoints, but communities that have long been underserved by modern transportation infrastructure. The revival is no half-measure. It’s a $139.5 million commitment, involving track upgrades, station refurbishments, and the acquisition of three brand-new Siemens Venture trainsets. These aren’t your grandfather’s rail cars. They’ll feature accessible washrooms, Wi-Fi, wider seating, power outlets, and onboard storage for mobility aids, meeting the full range of needs for modern travellers.

One of the most exciting aspects of the Northlander’s return is the attention being paid to operational timing and scheduling. Service is expected to begin by the end of 2026, with trains running between four and seven days per week, depending on demand and seasonal needs. The journey from Toronto to Timmins will take about 10 to 11 hours, and both daytime and overnight departures are being considered to best accommodate passengers. This scheduling approach reflects a deeper understanding of how people in the North actually travel, whether they’re making medical trips, visiting family, or commuting for work. It’s not just about frequency; it’s about relevance and reliability.

There are several layers of benefit to this project, each more meaningful than the last. First and foremost, it’s about connectivity. For too long, Northern Ontario has been left behind in the transportation conversation, despite its immense contributions to the provincial economy through mining, forestry, and tourism. Reconnecting the North to the South by train helps bridge not only physical distances but economic and cultural divides as well. Trains don’t just move people, they move opportunity.

Economically, this revival is a catalyst. Local businesses will benefit from improved mobility for both workers and customers. Tourism operators can expect a boost as more visitors opt for the scenic, stress-free route north. And for municipalities along the route, the return of passenger rail service is a magnet for investment in everything from hospitality to infrastructure. The Northlander isn’t just arriving—it’s bringing momentum with it.

There’s also a compelling environmental case. In a province increasingly focused on climate resilience, rail offers a significantly greener alternative to individual car travel and regional flights. Each trainload of passengers represents dozens of vehicles off the road, translating into measurable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. For Ontario to meet its long-term sustainability goals, projects like the Northlander aren’t just helpful, they’re necessary.

Perhaps most importantly, though, this train is about accessibility and inclusion. Whether you’re a senior with limited mobility, a student on a tight budget, or a resident of a remote community without a driver’s license, the Northlander offers something invaluable: freedom. The freedom to travel without dependence on a car. The freedom to access services and opportunities that would otherwise be out of reach. And the freedom to feel seen and served by the systems meant to support you.

The Northlander’s return is not a silver bullet, and challenges will remain. Ridership must be cultivated through thoughtful marketing and community outreach. Service quality must be maintained. And long-term funding must remain a political priority, no matter who holds office. But none of these challenges are insurmountable. What matters most is that the train is coming back, new, improved, and loaded with promise.

For too long, the Northlander was a missing piece of the provincial puzzle. Its return is not only an act of restoration but of renewal. It affirms that every corner of this province matters, and that no community should be cut off from the future by virtue of its geography. So, all aboard. The North is on track once again.

Sources
Ontario Northland: The Northlander
Ontario Government Announcement: Passenger Rail in the North
BayToday: All Aboard for the New Era of the Northlander
Wikipedia: Ontario Northlander
Northern Policy Institute: Passenger Rail and Northern Access

Beyond Alto: The Ripple Effect of High-Speed Rail on Local Transit and Business

The Alto high-speed rail project is poised to do more than just transform intercity travel—it will also act as a catalyst for expanded local public transportation networks and economic growth in smaller communities along the corridor. High-speed rail doesn’t exist in isolation; it requires efficient first- and last-mile connections to ensure that travelers can seamlessly reach their final destinations. As Alto stations are developed in cities like Peterborough and Trois-Rivières, there will be a natural demand for increased bus services, light rail connections, and other forms of public transit to serve passengers arriving and departing from these hubs.

In cities like Ottawa and Montreal, where light rail transit (LRT) networks are already in place or under development, Alto will likely drive additional investment in urban transit expansion. Commuters traveling into these cities will need efficient ways to connect from high-speed rail stations to workplaces, universities, and residential areas. This could lead to the creation of new LRT lines, expanded bus routes, and improved transit hubs that integrate multiple modes of transportation under a single, seamless system. Toronto, for instance, may see an expansion of its GO Transit network or additional streetcar service to accommodate increased passenger flow from the high-speed rail station.

Smaller communities like Peterborough, which has long suffered from limited transit options, stand to benefit significantly. With an Alto station positioned in the city, businesses catering to travelers—hotels, restaurants, and retail establishments—will likely see increased activity. At the same time, local governments may prioritize the development of new transit services, such as regional bus routes that connect surrounding rural areas to the high-speed rail station. This increased connectivity could make Peterborough a more attractive destination for commuters who work in Toronto or Ottawa but prefer the affordability and quality of life found in a smaller city.

The economic ripple effects extend beyond just transit and business development. High-speed rail has been shown in other countries to attract new industries, create demand for office space near stations, and encourage residential development in previously overlooked areas. With Alto, towns along the route could see a surge in interest from businesses looking to take advantage of the improved connectivity. Real estate markets may also experience a boost as professionals and families consider relocating to these areas, knowing they can quickly access larger cities for work or leisure.

Ultimately, Alto is not just about linking major urban centers—it’s about reshaping the broader transportation ecosystem. By creating a high-speed backbone, it encourages cities and towns to rethink their own transit strategies, leading to improved local services that benefit both residents and visitors. If properly managed, this project has the potential to generate a more interconnected and accessible transportation network across Ontario and Quebec, fostering economic growth and enhanced mobility for generations to come.

The Alto Project: A New Era for Canadian Public Transportation

The Canadian government’s announcement of Alto, a new high-speed rail network linking Toronto and Quebec City, marks a watershed moment in the nation’s transportation history. This 1,000-kilometer electrified corridor will connect major urban centers while slashing travel times, with trains reaching speeds of up to 300 km/h. The journey from Toronto to Montreal, currently a grueling five-hour trip by rail, will be cut to just three hours, making it a direct competitor to short-haul flights. More than just a transportation project, Alto represents a long-overdue commitment to sustainable, efficient public infrastructure—one that could reshape how Canadians move between their largest cities.

Canada has been here before, at least in theory. The dream of high-speed rail has surfaced repeatedly over the decades, only to be shelved due to shifting political priorities, economic downturns, or a lack of public and private investment. In the 1960s, CN’s TurboTrain attempted to bring high-speed service to the Montreal-Toronto corridor, but despite its impressive top speed of 225 km/h, it was plagued by technical challenges and ultimately discontinued. Later, in the 1980s, Bombardier proposed a high-speed link between Quebec City and Windsor, but enthusiasm waned in the face of funding concerns and political inertia. Meanwhile, other nations surged ahead. France launched the TGV in 1981, Japan’s Shinkansen had already been running since 1964, and China rapidly built the world’s most extensive high-speed rail network. Canada, with its vast geography and car-dependent culture, lagged behind, leaving VIA Rail to struggle with aging rolling stock and shared freight tracks that made reliable service nearly impossible.

The Alto project signals a long-overdue course correction. The government has committed $3.9 billion over six years to develop the project, covering environmental assessments, land acquisition, Indigenous consultations, and detailed engineering work. The project’s scale makes it the largest infrastructure investment in Canadian history, with an estimated 51,000 jobs created during construction and a projected annual boost of $35 billion to the national GDP. The selected consortium, Cadence, brings together some of the most experienced transportation and infrastructure firms in the world, including CDPQ Infra, AtkinsRéalis, Keolis Canada, SYSTRA Canada, SNCF Voyageurs, and, notably, Air Canada. With SNCF’s involvement, Alto benefits from France’s decades of expertise operating one of the world’s most successful high-speed rail networks.

Air Canada’s participation in the Alto consortium is a strategic move that acknowledges the inevitable disruption high-speed rail will bring to the lucrative Toronto-Montreal air corridor. As one of the busiest short-haul routes in North America, this segment has long been a key profit driver for the airline, particularly in the premium business travel market. However, with Alto set to offer a three-hour city-center-to-city-center journey—eliminating the hassles of airport security, boarding delays, and weather disruptions—many travelers, especially corporate clients, may shift their loyalty to rail. Rather than resisting this change, Air Canada is positioning itself within the Alto project to maintain influence over intercity travel dynamics, potentially leveraging its expertise in ticketing, loyalty programs, and intermodal connectivity. By integrating rail service into its broader network, Air Canada can remain a key player in the evolving transportation landscape, offering seamless connections between domestic, international, and rail-based travel. This approach mirrors strategies seen in Europe and Asia, where major airlines partner with high-speed rail operators rather than compete head-on, ensuring they remain relevant as travel preferences evolve.

Beyond the economic and technical aspects, Alto represents a fundamental shift in how Canada approaches public transit. For decades, intercity travel has been dominated by cars and airplanes, both of which contribute heavily to congestion and carbon emissions. The Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal corridor is one of the busiest in North America, yet for years, travelers have been forced to endure overcrowded highways, unreliable train schedules, or expensive, inconvenient air travel. High-speed rail changes the equation. Electrified trains eliminate the carbon footprint of regional flights, reducing overall transportation emissions in line with Canada’s climate goals. At the same time, by shifting travelers from cars to rail, Alto can alleviate highway congestion, making regional mobility smoother for everyone.

Connectivity is another major advantage. The Alto corridor isn’t just about linking Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City—it’s also about providing a reliable transit spine for smaller communities like Peterborough and Trois-Rivières. For decades, these towns have struggled with limited or non-existent rail service, forcing residents to rely on personal vehicles or slow, infrequent buses. With high-speed rail, these regions stand to gain new economic opportunities, easier access to larger job markets, and increased tourism. Countries like France, Spain, and Japan have seen firsthand how high-speed rail can transform regional economies, bringing prosperity to areas once considered too remote to thrive.

At its core, the Alto project is a declaration that public transit is not just an afterthought, but a national priority. Efficient, well-funded public transportation is a hallmark of modern, forward-thinking societies, reducing economic inequality by making mobility accessible to everyone, not just those who can afford cars or flights. It also offers a more comfortable, humane travel experience—one where passengers can relax, work, or enjoy the scenery instead of navigating traffic or enduring the frustrations of airport line ups, and security checks. 

Of course, the road ahead is not without obstacles. As my regular readers will know, I am not a fan of Public-Private Partnerships.  Large-scale infrastructure projects in Canada have a history of delays, cost overruns, and political roadblocks. Public support, political will, and careful management will be critical in ensuring that Alto doesn’t become another shelved idea. If the government and its private-sector partners can deliver on their promises, however, Alto has the potential to redefine travel in Canada for generations to come.

For too long, Canadians have watched as other countries invested in the kind of fast, efficient, and sustainable transportation systems that make daily life easier. Now, with Alto, Canada finally has the chance to catch up. If done right, this project could mark the beginning of a new era—one where public transportation is recognized not just as a necessity, but as an engine of economic growth, environmental responsibility, and national connectivity.

The Return of the Northumberland Line 

After more than 60 years, passenger services have returned to the Northumberland Line, reconnecting rural Northumberland to Newcastle and the wider UK rail network. Officially reopened on December 11, 2024, this project represents a significant milestone in North East England’s transport history, reversing the cuts of the Beeching era and reigniting the economic and social potential of the region.

A History Restored
The Northumberland Line was once part of the Blyth and Tyne railway network, integral to the industrial heartland of the region. However, passenger services ceased in 1964 due to the sweeping Beeching cuts, which prioritized cost-saving over connectivity. For decades, residents of towns like Ashington and Bedlington, which were once mining hubs, were left reliant on buses and cars for transportation.

Last passenger train 1964

Calls to reopen the line grew over the years, driven by the decline of local industries and increasing traffic congestion. Recognizing the need for improved transport infrastructure, a coalition of local councils, regional transport bodies, and the UK government invested £298.5 million to make the project a reality.

Rebuilding the Connection
The reopened line stretches 12 miles, linking six newly constructed or refurbished stations, including Ashington, Bedlington, Blyth Bebside, and Seaton Delaval, with Newcastle Central Station. Modern amenities, such as accessible platforms, onboard Wi-Fi, and spaces for bicycles and wheelchairs, make it a 21st-century solution tailored to today’s commuters.

Trains, operated by Northern Rail, run every 30 minutes during weekdays and hourly on evenings and Sundays. Notably, travel is priced affordably, with fares from just £1 for under-21s and a maximum of £3 for peak journeys between Ashington and Newcastle.

Integrated into the Wider Network
The Northumberland Line is seamlessly integrated into the Tyne and Wear Metro via Newcastle Central Station, giving passengers direct access to destinations across Tyneside, Sunderland, and Newcastle International Airport. This connectivity makes it easier for commuters, students, and tourists to move between rural Northumberland and urban centers, reducing reliance on car travel and alleviating congestion on major roadways.

The historical Newcastle Central Station is a vital hub on the East Coast Main Line, linking Northumberland Line passengers to long-distance services to London, Edinburgh, and beyond. This integration with both regional and national networks transforms the reopened line into a bridge between local communities and broader economic opportunities.

A Catalyst for Regional Growth
The project’s goals extend beyond transport. By improving access to education, employment, and leisure, it aims to stimulate economic development in towns along the line. For example, easier commutes to Newcastle could attract new businesses to Ashington and Blyth, while better transport links are expected to boost tourism in the region. The line also supports the region’s climate goals by encouraging a shift from cars to public transport, reducing congestion and emissions.

A Model for the Future
The Northumberland Line reflects a growing recognition of the value of rail in reconnecting underserved communities. It is part of the UK government’s Restoring Your Railway initiative, which seeks to reverse decades of cuts and restore lines that once served as lifelines for rural and industrial areas.

First train of the new era

As the first passenger train in over six decades pulled into Ashington Station on opening day, it symbolized more than just the return of a rail service. It marked the renewal of hope, opportunity, and a commitment to sustainable transport. The Northumberland Line is not just a revival of a forgotten route—it is a promise of what thoughtful investment in public infrastructure can achieve..