Over the past few weeks, social media has once again erupted (pun intended) with dire warnings that Yellowstone’s “supervolcano” is about to blow. TikTok doomsayers cite minor earthquakes, thermal features, and even routine geyser activity as harbingers of catastrophe. But is there any truth to these claims?
The short answer is no. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), which monitors Yellowstone around the clock with some of the most sophisticated volcanic surveillance equipment in the world, has stated plainly: there is no sign of impending volcanic eruption.
Let’s break down the facts.
🌋 Current Volcano Status (July 2025)
According to the latest monthly update from the USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), the volcano alert level remains at “NORMAL”, and the aviation color code is GREEN. These are the lowest possible threat levels.
- In June 2025, a total of 60 small earthquakes were recorded in the Yellowstone region – the largest being magnitude 2.7. These are not unusual for the region, which experiences 1,000–3,000 small quakes annually due to tectonic and hydrothermal activity.
- Ground deformation – which could suggest underground magma movement – has followed seasonal patterns, with about 3 cm of gradual subsidence (sinking) since October. This is a normal process that’s been ongoing for years and shows no signs of new magma intrusion.
- No earthquake swarms or unusual uplift patterns have been detected.
Source: USGS Yellowstone Volcano Updates
🔥 What About the Geysers and Hydrothermal Eruptions?
Much of the alarm online stems from a webcam video of a minor hydrothermal “eruption” at Black Diamond Pool, which occurred at 6:25 a.m. MDT on June 12, 2025. While visually striking, this was not a volcanic eruption. Hydrothermal explosions are steam-driven events caused by water heating rapidly beneath the surface – common in geyser basins like Biscuit Basin, where this event occurred.
These events do not indicate magma movement or increase the likelihood of a super-eruption.
Even the famed Steamboat Geyser, the world’s tallest active geyser, has had a busy year. But again, this activity is part of Yellowstone’s normal hydrothermal behaviour, which is separate from the volcanic system.
🧠 What the Science Says About Risk
New research published in 2025 using advanced imaging techniques (seismic tomography and magnetotellurics) has provided a more detailed look at Yellowstone’s subsurface magma system. Key findings include:
- Four distinct magma bodies exist under Yellowstone, but they are mostly solidified (less than 15% melt), meaning they are not capable of producing a super-eruption.
- A magma cap – a pressurized layer around 3.8 km deep – acts like a pressure relief valve, venting volcanic gases and preventing pressure buildup.
- The risk of a major eruption is extremely low. The USGS estimates the annual probability of a super-eruption at 0.00014% – or 1 in 700,000.
Sources:
📡 Constant Monitoring and Global Attention
Yellowstone is not some forgotten natural hazard. It is among the most heavily monitored volcanic systems on Earth, with:
- Over 40 seismic stations
- Ground deformation sensors (GPS and InSAR)
- Real-time gas emission detectors
- Remote thermal imaging and high-resolution webcams
Additionally, new sensors were installed in 2024 in Biscuit Basin and Slough Creek to monitor hydrothermal features more precisely. Any significant change would be detected within minutes and shared widely by USGS, NOAA, and international volcanic monitoring organizations.
✅ Final Word
The truth is less dramatic than a TikTok clip, but far more reassuring. Yellowstone is a living, breathing volcanic and hydrothermal system, and minor earthquakes, geyser bursts, and steam explosions are all part of its normal geological rhythm.
The scientific consensus remains solid: there is no indication of any imminent eruption, let alone a catastrophic one. So while the Yellowstone landscape may be thrilling, the science is calm and clear.
If you want to stay informed without falling down conspiracy rabbit holes, bookmark the USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory or follow their official Twitter/X.
Don’t let fear hijack facts.
The Rowanwood Chronicles 