Tag Archives: economy

Canada and the CUSMA Crossroads: Policy Recommendations for Ottawa

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As whispers from Washington grow louder about replacing the trilateral CUSMA with two separate bilateral trade agreements, one with the United States, one with Mexico, Canada finds itself at a pivotal moment. How Ottawa responds over the next eighteen months could determine not just near-term economic outcomes, but the resilience and global standing of the Canadian economy for decades to come.

The U.S. sees bilateral deals as a way to tighten rules of origin, enforce labour and environmental standards more aggressively, and gain leverage on regulatory issues. While these measures might appear to offer Canada the chance for a “customized” agreement, they also carry serious risks: fractured supply chains, diminished investment, and reduced bargaining power on the global stage. Canada cannot afford to approach this negotiation as a passive actor.

Policy Recommendations

1. Protect Integrated Supply Chains
Canada should insist on provisions that preserve existing supply-chain networks spanning Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Standstill clauses and grandfathering mechanisms should ensure that Canadian investments in autos, aerospace, electronics, and agriculture are not penalized under stricter U.S. bilateral rules.

2. Negotiate Realistic Rules of Origin
Ottawa should push for rules that recognize Canada’s production capacities and global sourcing realities. Overly restrictive thresholds would damage competitiveness; instead, the agreement should balance protection of U.S. interests with Canada’s need to remain a hub of North American manufacturing.

3. Secure Trade Policy Autonomy
A bilateral agreement must not lock Canada into U.S.-imposed restrictions on third-party trade. Canada needs the freedom to deepen relationships with the EU, Asia-Pacific, and emerging markets. Ottawa should insist on explicit clauses preserving this sovereignty.

4. Embed Environmental and Labour Standards Strategically
Canada should leverage the negotiation to advance shared values on environmental protection and labour rights. By including enforceable, mutually beneficial standards, Canada can turn compliance obligations into a competitive advantage for Canadian businesses, particularly in clean energy, forestry, and high-value manufacturing.

5. Diversify Market Access
The U.S. will always be Canada’s largest trading partner, but Ottawa must use this moment to accelerate diversification. Strong bilateral terms with the U.S. should complement, not replace, agreements with other regions. This strategy will reduce vulnerability to U.S. policy swings and strengthen Canada’s global economic resilience.

6. Maximize Leverage on Strategic Resources
Canada possesses energy, critical minerals, and clean-tech assets of global significance. Ottawa should use the bilateral framework to secure access to U.S. markets without ceding control or undervaluing these resources, ensuring that Canada retains long-term strategic advantage.

7. Prepare for Transition and Communication
Any shift from CUSMA to bilateral arrangements will create uncertainty for businesses. Ottawa should implement a clear, phased transition plan and communicate proactively with domestic industries. Providing certainty and guidance can prevent disruption, maintain investment confidence, and reinforce Canada’s reputation as a stable, reliable partner.

8. Protect Agricultural Supply Management Sectors as Part of Food Security Strategy
Canada’s supply-managed sectors — dairy, poultry, and eggs — are vital not only to farmers’ livelihoods but to national food security. Any bilateral agreement must safeguard these systems against excessive U.S. pressure or forced liberalization. This will ensure that Canadians maintain stable domestic production, buffer against global market volatility, and preserve a cornerstone of rural economic resilience.

Conclusion
The U.S. drive toward bilateral deals presents both danger and opportunity. Canada must approach negotiations not as a defensive exercise in preservation, but as a chance to reshape its trade strategy for a new global environment. By insisting on supply-chain continuity, flexible rules of origin, strategic autonomy, market diversification, and protection for food security, Ottawa can turn potential disruption into a springboard for long-term economic strength.

Canada’s response will signal whether it remains a reactive participant in North American trade or assumes the role of confident, sovereign actor capable of shaping its own destiny. This is not a time to defer to Washington. It is a time to plan boldly, negotiate shrewdly, and safeguard Canada’s future.

Five Things We Learned This Week

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Week of November 15–21, 2025

⚖️ 1. EU Moves to Limit Big Tech Power

European regulators proposed sweeping rules on Nov 18 to curb dominant tech companies, including stricter data-sharing requirements and restrictions on self-preferencing.

Why it matters: This could reshape how major platforms operate across Europe and force Big Tech to open up more, potentially leveling the playing field for smaller competitors.

🌍 2. COP30 Leaders Agree on New Climate Finance Pledge

On Nov 19, world leaders at COP30 committed to a $150 billion fund over the next five years aimed at helping vulnerable developing nations adapt to climate change.

Why it matters: This may mark a turning point for climate justice by providing crucial resources for countries facing rising seas, extreme weather, and food insecurity.

🔬 3. University Scientists Create Recyclable Batteries with 90% Efficiency

A European research team announced on Nov 20 the development of a new battery design that is both high-efficiency (approximately 90 percent) and made from fully recyclable materials.

Why it matters: If scalable, this could dramatically cut the environmental impact of batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage.

🧠 4. Breakthrough in Early Alzheimer’s Detection

On Nov 21, a biotech company revealed a blood test that can predict early Alzheimer’s disease with over 85 percent accuracy, even before symptoms appear.

Why it matters: Early detection enables earlier interventions, potentially slowing disease progression and improving long-term outcomes.

🛢️ 5. Iran and Saudi Arabia Sign Oil-Export Infrastructure Deal

On Nov 17, Iran and Saudi Arabia signed a historic agreement to jointly develop pipeline and export infrastructure after years of strained relations.

Why it matters: The deal could reshape energy dynamics in the region, ease geopolitical tensions, and potentially affect global oil prices.

This week delivered a rare mix of scientific breakthroughs, political shifts, and geopolitical surprises. Each event hints at broader changes taking shape across the world. As always, the Rowanwood Chronicles will keep watching how these threads unfold in the weeks ahead.

North America’s Strategic Choice: Integration or Irrelevance in a Multipolar World

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As the global trade landscape shifts, alliances such as BRICS and infrastructure developments like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) are redrawing the map of commerce. These projects are not just economic arrangements, they are strategic assertions of a multipolar world, where emerging economies are building financial systems and trade networks that bypass traditional Western-dominated institutions. In this changing environment, deeper integration across North America is no longer just desirable, it is essential. The United States, Canada, and Mexico share geography, economic interdependence, and complementary strengths. But instead of leaning into this partnership, the U.S. has at times acted in ways that undermine its closest allies, and in doing so, it is undercutting its own long-term strategic interests.

BRICS, now expanded to include nations like Egypt and the UAE, is working toward reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and building alternative financial infrastructure. Simultaneously, the INSTC, a 7,200-kilometre multimodal corridor linking India, Iran, Russia, and Europe, offers a faster and cheaper trade route than the Suez Canal. These shifts are enabling new alignments between Asian, Eurasian, and Global South nations. In contrast, the U.S. risks being left behind unless it reinvests in its regional relationships. North America, bound by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), already possesses a solid legal and regulatory foundation. What is missing is the political will to push that foundation into a fully integrated economic zone.

Closer North American integration could strengthen supply chains, enhance competitiveness, and boost regional innovation. Mexico’s manufacturing power, Canada’s resource wealth and technological expertise, and the U.S.’s financial and consumer might together could create a resilient and globally influential economic bloc. However, protectionist impulses from Washington, such as tariffs on Canadian aluminum, trade disputes over softwood lumber, and threats against Mexican imports, erode trust. These actions push Canada and Mexico to expand trade elsewhere, increasing their engagement with China, the EU, and the Asia-Pacific. While diversification is strategically wise, a fragmented North America plays directly into the hands of BRICS and INSTC-aligned actors.

Still, for Canada and Mexico, investing further in North American integration remains the most strategically sound choice. Despite political turbulence, the U.S. offers unmatched access to capital, consumer markets, and legal protections. CUSMA provides a rules-based framework that supports long-term stability more effectively than newer or looser trade deals. And while deeper trade ties with China or Europe may offer short-term gains, they cannot replicate the geographic, cultural, and logistical synergies of the North American relationship. Rather than turning outward in frustration, Canada and Mexico can use their economic leverage to influence U.S. trade policy from within, helping to shape a trilateral vision rooted in shared democratic values and mutual prosperity.

The U.S., for its part, must recognize that its global position depends not just on military strength or Silicon Valley innovation, but on the strength of its closest partnerships. The path forward lies not in undermining allies, but in building with them a regional powerhouse capable of competing with the rising multipolar world. Failing to do so means ceding both economic and geopolitical ground – to rivals who are already moving with speed and purpose.

Food Security Requires a Canadian Grocery Fairness Act to Break the Supermarket Cartel

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Food prices in Canada are now so high that a growing share of households are skipping meals or relying on food banks, yet the country’s dominant grocery chains continue to post record profits. It’s an economic contradiction that Canadians are no longer willing to ignore. After years of voluntary codes, polite meetings with industry leaders, and vague promises of self-regulation, the time has come for Parliament to act. Canada needs a Grocery Fairness and Anti-Cartel Act to restore competition, transparency, and trust in the food supply.

The data are damning. Between 2019 and 2024, grocery prices rose by more than 25 percent, outpacing both wages and overall inflation. Meanwhile, profit margins at the country’s three dominant players, Loblaw, Sobeys’ parent company Empire, and Metro, reached their highest levels in decades. These three corporations control nearly 60 percent of the national grocery market and, in some provinces, more than 75 percent. Despite the removal of gas taxes and a slowdown in supply chain costs, prices have not come down. The explanation is simple: the grocery sector operates as a de facto cartel.

Canadians have seen evidence of this before. In 2018, a major bread price-fixing scandal revealed collusion among suppliers and retailers that spanned more than a decade. The Competition Bureau’s investigation led to fines and admissions of wrongdoing, but no lasting structural change. The same corporate families and alliances continue to dominate shelf space, dictate supplier terms, and shape consumer prices. Voluntary codes have done little to curb their power. When a handful of companies can quietly move in lockstep on pricing, even without explicit collusion, the outcome is the same: higher costs for everyone else.

A Grocery Fairness Act would not be radical. It would simply align Canada with the kind of market safeguards that already exist in other developed economies. The United Kingdom established a Groceries Code Adjudicator in 2013 to oversee fair dealing between supermarkets and suppliers. The European Union enforces strict competition rules that prevent excessive market dominance and punish “tacit collusion.” Canada, by contrast, still relies on a Competition Act designed for a different era, one that assumes the threat to markets comes from explicit conspiracies rather than structural concentration.

The model law proposed by several economists and policy experts would impose a national market-share limit of 15 percent per grocery chain, and 25 percent in any province. Companies that exceed those thresholds would be required to divest stores or brands until the market is more balanced. It would also make the existing Grocery Code of Conduct legally binding rather than voluntary, ensuring that farmers and small suppliers are protected from arbitrary fees, delisting threats, and other coercive practices.

Most importantly, the law would require large grocers to publish detailed pricing and profit data by category, showing whether retail increases are justified by rising costs. If a chain’s margins expand while input costs stay flat, the public deserves to know. Transparency alone would discourage the kind of quiet, parallel pricing behaviour that has become the norm.

Critics will call this “interference in the market,” but the truth is that Canada no longer has a functioning grocery market in the classical sense. When three firms dominate distribution, logistics, and supply contracts, the market’s self-correcting mechanisms are broken. Economists call it “oligopolistic coordination”; ordinary Canadians call it being gouged at the checkout.

Breaking up concentration would also open the door to regional cooperatives, independent grocers, and Indigenous food enterprises that have been squeezed out of distribution networks. Local ownership builds resilience, especially in rural and northern communities where dependence on a single chain often leads to higher costs and poorer food access.

There is also a broader principle at stake: when corporations profit from a basic human necessity, government has a duty to ensure that profit is earned through efficiency, not exploitation. If the banking sector can be regulated for systemic risk and telecommunications companies for fair access, surely food, the most essential of goods, deserves the same scrutiny.

Canada’s political establishment has been slow to move. The federal government has encouraged the large chains to sign a voluntary code, but participation remains partial and unenforced. Provinces have little power to act independently. The result is a cycle of press releases, hearings, and photo opportunities, while the price of a loaf of bread continues to climb.

A Grocery Fairness and Anti-Cartel Act would mark a decisive shift. It would give the Competition Bureau real structural tools rather than case-by-case investigations. It would make transparency mandatory and collusion punishable by substantial fines or even criminal liability for executives. Most importantly, it would restore the principle that essential markets exist to serve citizens, not to enrich monopolies.

Canada prides itself on fairness. Yet fairness in the grocery aisle has become an illusion. If Parliament wants to restore public confidence and make life affordable again, it should begin not with subsidies or rebates, but with the courage to challenge the corporate concentration that underlies the problem. The country needs a real grocery market, competitive, transparent, and accountable. Anything less is a betrayal of every Canadian who still believes that food should be priced by cost, not by cartel.

Sources:
Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index data 2019–2024;
Competition Bureau of Canada, Bread Price-Fixing Investigation Report (2018);
Office for National Statistics (UK), Groceries Code Adjudicator Review 2023;
European Commission, Competition Regulation 1/2003.

Canada and Mexico Forge Strategic Partnership: Implications for North America

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On September 18, 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in Mexico City. This agreement, covering 2025–2028, aims to deepen economic, security, and environmental collaboration between Canada and Mexico, explicitly anticipating the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While the immediate bilateral effects are evident, the agreement also carries broader implications for the three major North American economies: Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

Scope and Focus of the Agreement
At its core, the agreement establishes a four-year bilateral action plan encompassing four pillars: prosperity, mobility and social inclusion, security, and environmental sustainability. Economically, it focuses on expanding trade and investment in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and health, while jointly developing critical infrastructure such as ports, rail links, and energy corridors. In security, it aims to strengthen border control and combat transnational crime. The environmental and sustainability component is particularly notable, signaling both countries’ intent to collaborate on climate mitigation and resource management.

Strategic Context
The timing of this agreement is significant. Earlier in 2025, both Canada and Mexico faced tariffs and trade frictions with the United States, creating a strategic impetus to solidify bilateral cooperation. This partnership may serve as a hedge against future unilateral U.S. trade measures and positions both nations more strongly for upcoming negotiations surrounding the USMCA review in 2026. By consolidating economic, security, and environmental frameworks bilaterally, Canada and Mexico signal that they can act decisively and collaboratively independent of U.S. alignment, while still committing to trilateral engagement.

Implications for Canada
For Canada, the agreement represents a proactive diversification of trade and investment partnerships within North America. Beyond the U.S., Mexico is an increasingly significant market for Canadian goods and services, particularly in energy and infrastructure. By reinforcing bilateral economic ties, Canada gains leverage in upcoming USMCA discussions and reduces its vulnerability to unilateral U.S. trade policy shifts. Moreover, collaboration on climate and sustainability initiatives positions Canada as a leader in cross-border environmental governance, complementing its domestic commitments.

Implications for Mexico
For Mexico, the agreement strengthens its economic and geopolitical options. Mexico has historically balanced trade and diplomatic relationships with the United States while seeking alternative partners. Formalizing a strategic partnership with Canada enhances Mexico’s negotiating position with the U.S., particularly as the USMCA review approaches. Joint infrastructure projects and investment commitments also promise to accelerate Mexico’s industrial and energy development, potentially boosting domestic employment and technology transfer.

Implications for the United States
For the United States, the Canada-Mexico agreement presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, stronger integration between Canada and Mexico may facilitate smoother trilateral cooperation, reducing friction in cross-border commerce and security. On the other hand, it could limit U.S. leverage in bilateral negotiations with either country if Canada and Mexico present unified positions during the USMCA review. The U.S. may need to consider the strategic consequences of any unilateral trade actions in light of this growing North American solidarity.

The Canada-Mexico strategic partnership represents a calculated, forward-looking approach to regional stability and prosperity. While the agreement strengthens bilateral ties, it also reshapes the dynamics of North American relations, providing both Canada and Mexico with enhanced economic and strategic agency. For the United States, it signals a more integrated northern and southern neighbor bloc, emphasizing the importance of collaborative rather than confrontational engagement. As the 2026 USMCA review approaches, all three nations will likely navigate a more complex and interdependent landscape, where trilateral cooperation becomes not only beneficial but essential.

Sources:
• Reuters. Canada and Mexico committed to shared partnership with US, Carney says. September 18, 2025. link
• Politico. Mexico and Canada make nice ahead of high-stakes trade talks. September 18, 2025. link
• Global News. Carney, Sheinbaum sign strategic partnership to boost trade, security, environment. September 18, 2025. link

Five Things We Learned This Week

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Week of September 13–19, 2025

Another week of sports shocks, economic shifts, and global moments. Below are five items that turned heads between Saturday, September 13 and Friday, September 19, 2025. Each item is date-checked and drawn from primary reporting so you can follow the facts and the context.

⚽ Canada ends New Zealand’s World Cup dominance to reach final

On September 19 Canada defeated defending champions New Zealand 34-19 in the Women’s Rugby World Cup semi final at Ashton Gate, booking a spot in the final for only the second time in the nation’s history. Why it matters: The result breaks a decade of New Zealand dominance, underlines the rise of Canada’s women’s program, and sets the stage for a historic final.

💷 UK borrowing surges and the pound weakens amid budget pressures

In mid September government borrowing rose well above forecasts, pushing August borrowing to its highest level in years. The pound weakened as markets digested the higher deficit and the risk of tougher fiscal measures. Why it matters: Higher borrowing raises questions for autumn budget planning and could force policy adjustments that affect growth and household budgets.

🧮 S&P Global updates show mixed growth with regional divergence

The September economic outlook from S&P Global revised growth up for economies such as the United States, Japan, Brazil and India while downgrading forecasts for Canada, Germany and Russia. Inflation remains uneven globally. Why it matters: The patchwork outlook changes the balance of global risks and opportunities, influencing trade, investment and policy choices.

📈 FAANG and AI stocks push markets higher as Fed cut odds rise

Tech giants and AI-related firms led gains during the week as investors continued to price a nearer Federal Reserve easing. The market rotation highlighted renewed appetite for growth names. Why it matters: Shifting expectations about monetary policy affect asset valuations, capital flows and corporate funding decisions.

🔭 Near-Earth asteroid 2025 FA22 made a safe flyby and was closely tracked

The object known as 2025 FA22, estimated between 130 and 290 meters, passed safely on September 18. Observatories used the close approach to refine orbital data and practice planetary defence procedures. Why it matters: Even large near-Earth objects can be monitored and ruled out as threats, which builds confidence in detection and response systems.

Closing thoughts: This week mixed sporting triumph and market optimism with sober economic readings and planetary vigilance. As these stories unfold they will shape policy decisions, investment priorities and public conversation. We will keep tracking developments and bringing you the five things worth your attention each week.

Sources

Five Things We Learned This Week

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Week of September 6 – 12, 2025

A busy seven days brought hard headlines and surprising turns across geopolitics, markets, tech, and finance. Here are five things worth bookmarking from the week that just passed.

⚔️ Russia’s biggest air attack of the war pummels Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv

On September 8 Russia carried out its most intense air assault of the conflict to date, using a large barrage of missiles and drones that struck Kyiv and other population centres, set a government building ablaze, damaged infrastructure, and caused civilian casualties.
Why it matters: The scale of the strike shows an escalation in Russia’s long-range campaign and increases pressure on Ukraine’s air defences and humanitarian response.

⚖️ U.S. Supreme Court clears the way for broader immigration raids

On September 9 the Supreme Court allowed aggressive federal immigration operations to proceed, backing the administration’s approach to broad enforcement actions in several states.
Why it matters: The decision reshapes enforcement practice nationwide and will affect communities, labor markets, and legal challenges over civil rights and federal power.

📱 Apple unveiled its iPhone 17 lineup and a slimmer “iPhone 17 Air” at its September event

On September 9 Apple introduced the iPhone 17 family along with refreshed AirPods and Watch models, emphasizing a thinner design for the new iPhone Air and modest camera and battery upgrades across the range.
Why it matters: New hardware shapes holiday-season demand, supplier orders, and the consumer tech earnings cycle that drives parts of global markets.

📈 U.S. and global markets rally on growing bets that the Fed will cut rates soon

Through September 11 and 12 stocks posted weekly gains and several U.S. indexes reached fresh highs as traders priced a high probability of an imminent Fed rate cut after softer economic indicators. The rally was led by tech and AI-related names but was broad enough to lift major indices.
Why it matters: Shifting expectations about interest-rate policy change borrowing costs, asset valuations, and capital flows for businesses and households worldwide.

₿ Tether announces plans for a U.S.-facing stablecoin called USAT

On September 12 Tether confirmed plans to launch a new U.S. stablecoin, USAT, aimed specifically at U.S. residents and designed to comply with new domestic rules and banking arrangements.
Why it matters: A regulated U.S. stablecoin from a market leader could reshape crypto onramps, institutional adoption, and how regulators oversee digital dollars.

Closing thoughts: From geopolitical escalations to courtroom rulings, from flashy tech launches to market shifts and digital currency experiments, this week underscored how interconnected our world has become. The threads of war, law, innovation, and finance don’t just make headlines – they ripple into daily life. As we head into the next week, these five stories remind us to keep one eye on the big picture and another on the details shaping tomorrow.

Nation-Building by Design: The Strategic Nature of Carney’s Infrastructure Agenda

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Canada is entering a new phase of nation-building, one that blends urgent economic needs with longer-term structural transformation. Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, the government has moved decisively to put infrastructure back at the centre of Canadian economic policy. The legislative and programmatic architecture that has been put in place in 2025 reveals not only a desire to build quickly, but also a strategy to re-shape the foundations of trade, energy, housing, and Arctic sovereignty. The pattern of investment and institution-building shows a layered approach: short-term relief to pressing bottlenecks, medium-term positioning of Canada as a reliable trading partner and energy supplier, and long-term steps to reinforce sovereignty, climate resilience, and competitiveness.

At the core lies the One Canadian Economy Act, passed in June 2025, which dismantles federal barriers to interprovincial trade while creating the Building Canada Act. This framework enshrines the ability to designate projects of “national interest” for streamlined approval. The intent is clear: Canada cannot afford to have critical transmission lines, export terminals, or transportation corridors stalled indefinitely in regulatory gridlock. To operationalize this authority, the government launched a Major Projects Office (MPO), with an Indigenous Advisory Council integrated into its structure. The MPO serves as a single-window permitting and financing hub, designed to shepherd nation-building projects through approvals in under two years. The short-term gain is administrative clarity and accelerated approvals; the medium-term payoff is a pipeline of projects that directly enhance trade capacity and energy reliability.

Housing has been treated with equal urgency. The creation of Build Canada Homes, announced in the May Throne Speech and detailed in August, signals a willingness to intervene directly in housing supply. Paired with CMHC’s Housing Design Catalogue, which offers standardized blueprints for gentle density from accessory units to six-plexes, the federal role is shifting from passive funding to active delivery. Short-term gains include faster project approvals and cost savings for small-scale builders. In the medium term, Build Canada Homes intends to scale modular and prefabricated construction to double housing output, stabilizing affordability while anchoring domestic supply chains in Canadian lumber and inputs. The long-term structural effect would be the normalization of higher building rates across the country, a prerequisite for sustaining workforce mobility and economic competitiveness.

Trade and corridor infrastructure forms the third pillar. The Trade Diversification Corridor Fund, budgeted at five billion dollars, is designed to expand port and rail capacity and reduce Canada’s overreliance on U.S. gateways. The High Frequency Rail (HFR) project between Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City is continuing, promising transformative improvements to the most densely populated corridor. In the short run, HFR stimulates engineering and pre-construction employment. Medium-term gains will appear in reduced congestion, faster business travel, and increased regional integration. The long-term dividends include lower emissions and globally competitive connectivity between Canada’s political and financial capitals.

The expansion of the Port of Churchill in northern Manitoba illustrates how the government is aligning regional development with national strategy. With over $175 million in new federal funding, $36 million from Manitoba, and parallel commitments from Saskatchewan, Churchill is being re-equipped as a trade-enabling Arctic gateway. Recent investments in rail reliability, storage capacity for minerals, and new wharf facilities are positioning it as a potential hub for agricultural exports and critical minerals. The short-term impact is the stabilization of Hudson Bay Railway service, critical for northern communities. The medium-term benefit is expanded shipping capacity during the navigable season. The long-term prize lies in climate-extended Arctic navigation, which could turn Churchill into a permanent transatlantic container port, reshaping Canada’s role in global shipping.

Energy and clean industrial infrastructure represent another strategic frontier. Through the Canada Growth Fund (CGF), Ottawa is deploying $15 billion to de-risk large low-carbon projects, with seven billion earmarked for carbon contracts for difference. This mechanism gives investors certainty that carbon pricing will not collapse, unlocking private capital for carbon capture, hydrogen, and industrial decarbonization. Short-term benefits include early project commitments, such as waste-to-energy facilities in Alberta. Medium-term, these contracts build a domestic market for clean technologies and expand Canada’s share in global green supply chains. Long-term, CGF instruments lay the foundation for a carbon-competitive industrial economy, ensuring Canadian heavy industry remains viable under international climate rules.

The Arctic and defence agenda provides a parallel set of strategic investments. NORAD modernization, including the joint development of over-the-horizon radar with Australia, directly strengthens northern surveillance. The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, with three bidders shortlisted, will anchor significant industrial activity in Canadian shipyards. In the short run, these procurements inject capital into defence industries. Medium-term gains include jobs, technology transfer, and new capacity in coastal infrastructure. The long-term effect is reinforcement of Arctic sovereignty and continental security at a time of intensifying geopolitical competition.

Underlying all of this is continuity through existing transfers such as the Canada Community-Building Fund, which locks in $26.7 billion for local water, transit, and road projects through 2034. These represent the essential backbone investments that ensure communities can absorb population growth and remain livable, complementing the marquee projects at the national level.

Taken together, these initiatives reveal a strategy that is both defensive and offensive. In the short term, Canadians will see more housing starts, more shovels in the ground for rail and port expansions, and more certainty for clean-tech investors. Over the medium term, the country will gain diversified trade routes, a more mobile workforce, and scaled-up housing supply that cools inflationary pressures. In the long run, the institutional innovations of 2025, the One Canadian Economy Act, the Major Projects Office, and the Canada Growth Fund, may be remembered as the architecture that enabled Canada to hold its ground as a sovereign, competitive, and sustainable economy in a fracturing world.

When the Bully Yells, He’s Losing: What Navarro’s Rhetoric Really Means for Canada

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When Peter Navarro, former White House trade adviser and Trump loyalist, publicly urged Canadians to pressure their government into “negotiating fairly” before U.S. tariffs hit on August 1, the message wasn’t strength, it was panic. Navarro’s over-the-top rhetoric, painting Canada as an obstinate, underpowered negotiator, is less about truth and more about fear. If the United States were truly in control of the trade talks, it wouldn’t need to bluster. It wouldn’t need to insult. And it certainly wouldn’t be begging Canadians to do its dirty work.

Let’s be clear: Canada is not on its knees. We’re not some brittle middle power gasping for access to American markets. We’re a G7 economy with sophisticated supply chains, deep global trade ties, and a well-earned reputation for playing the long game. When Washington starts lashing out with threats and playground-level taunts, it’s a sign we’ve landed a punch.

Navarro’s claim that Canada is being “very challenging” at the negotiating table is revealing. It means our team is doing its job. Canadian trade officials, seasoned, careful, and resolute, have held their ground in defense of fair access, environmental standards, and domestic protections. That makes the Americans nervous. And when Americans get nervous in a Trump-style administration, they yell louder, not smarter.

The proposed 35% tariffs, to be imposed on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA, are intended as a hammer. But even a hammer needs a target that won’t hit back. And this time, Canada has alternatives: deepening trade with the EU and Asia-Pacific, strengthening regional innovation hubs, and leveraging our vast resources in climate-sensitive sectors that the U.S. increasingly needs but doesn’t yet control.

Navarro also made a critical tactical error. By calling on Canadian citizens to push back against their own government, he misunderstands our national character. Canadians don’t take kindly to being told what to do, especially not by foreign officials acting like economic schoolyard bullies. The effect will likely be the opposite: renewed support for Ottawa’s position and a strengthening of political will across party lines to resist being steamrolled.

Historically, Canada has negotiated from the shadows, careful to avoid open confrontation. But this isn’t 1987. Today’s Canada is assertive, strategically patient, and unafraid of outlasting American tantrums. Navarro’s comments, while aggressive on the surface, are deeply revealing underneath. They betray a U.S. trade team that’s frustrated, boxed in, and afraid of losing leverage.

So yes, when the U.S. starts yelling, Canada should listen, but not to obey. To smile, stand tall, and quietly note: we’ve got them worried.

Sources:
• Bloomberg Law, “Navarro Urges Canada to ‘Negotiate Fairly’ Before August Tariff Deadline,” July 11, 2025.
• AInvest, “Trump Announces 35% Tariff on Canadian Goods,” July 11, 2025.
• Government of Canada, Global Affairs briefings on trade diversification (2023–2025).

Five Things We Learned This Week

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Here’s the latest edition of “Five Things We Learned This Week” for July 5–11, 2025, featuring all-new insights within the past seven days—no repeats from previous lists:

⚖️ 1. Trump Intensifies Trade War with 30–50% Tariffs

  • Between July 7–11, President Trump sent letters threatening 30% tariffs on EU & Mexico (starting Aug 1), 35% on Canada, and 50% on imported copper, along with an extra 10% on BRICS allies  .
  • Global markets responded with caution—stocks dipped, safe-haven assets steadied, and commodity currencies showed volatility  .
  • Trade partners expressed strong concern, calling the moves disruptive amid ongoing negotiations  .

🛢️ 2. Oil Prices Jump Over 2% amid Tight Markets and Tariff Fears

  • On July 11, Brent rose ~2.5% ($1.72/barrel) to $70.36, and WTI climbed 2.8% to $68.45, sparked by IEA warnings of tighter supply, OPEC+ compliance, and trade policy risks  .
  • U.S. rig counts fell for the 11th straight week, intensifying concerns about future output ().

🌍 3. UN Adopts Climate–Human Rights Resolution

  • On July 8, the UN Human Rights Council passed a climate change motion that ties environmental harm to human rights—adopted by consensus after the Marshall Islands withdrew a controversial fossil-fuel phase-out amendment  .
  • The resolution calls for “defossilizing our economies” and sets a benchmark for framing climate action as a global human-rights priority  .

💼 4. BRICS Summit Highlights Climate Funding Demands

  • On July 7, at their Rio meeting, BRICS leaders urged wealthy nations to fund climate transitions in developing countries, while also affirming continued fossil fuel usage in their economies  .
  • Brazil’s President Lula warned against denialism, contrasting BRICS multilateralism with U.S. isolationism ().

🎤 5. Reuters NEXT Asia Summit Tackles Trade, AI & Global Stability

  • July 7, the Reuters NEXT Asia forum in Singapore convened ~350 global leaders to debate pressing issues—covering AI innovation, trade disputes, and geopolitical uncertainty  .
  • Discussions stressed AI’s dual potential for disruption and opportunity, with trade tensions—especially tariffs—looming large.

Each of these five highlights occurred between July 5–11, 2025, and brings fresh, global perspectives to this week’s roundup. Want full article links or deeper analysis? Just say the word!